Predicting patients with poor functional outcome after spontaneous aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: the predicting subarachnoid hemorrhage long-term outcome score

Abstract

Objective: Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a critical condition with high morbidity and mortality. Despite medical advances, predicting functional outcomes 1 year after the hemorrhage remains challenging. The aim of this study was to develop, compare, and validate a predictive score for 1-year functional outcomes after SAH.

Methods: This monocentric, retrospective observational study included all adults admitted to a neurosurgical ICU for aneurysmal SAH from 2002 to 2020, excluding moribund patients. The primary endpoint was a poor 1-year functional outcome, defined as a modified Rankin Scale score of 4 to 6. Independent risk factors for poor outcomes were identified using multivariate logistic regression in a derivation cohort. The predicting SAH long-term outcome (PSL) score was compared with the World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS), Fisher, and admission bioclinical scores and validated in an independent cohort.

Results: In the overall population (n = 1564), 21% experienced poor functional outcomes at 1 year. In the derivation cohort (n = 1095), independent predictors of poor outcomes included age (p < 0.001), WFNS score (p < 0.001), troponin level (p = 0.007), S100β level (p = 0.01), surgical or coiling complications (p < 0.001), incomplete aneurysm exclusion (p = 0.03), and hydrocephalus requiring CSF drainage (p = 0.002). The PSL score achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.85 (95% CI 0.82-0.88), outperforming other scores. These findings were consistent across various subgroups. In the validation cohort (n = 469), the PSL score achieved an ROC-AUC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.74-0.85), surpassing the WFNS and Fisher scores, with a negative predictive value of 95% (95% CI 94%-97%).

Conclusions: The authors developed a simple and effective score to identify predictors of poor 1-year functional outcomes at admission and early after aneurysmal SAH in a large cohort.

Keywords: aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage; functional outcome; long-term outcome; prognosis; ruptured cerebral aneurysm; score; vascular disorders.