Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2025 Aug:142:104852.
doi: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2025.104852. Epub 2025 May 22.

The economic factors that determine smoking abstinence: a survival and mediation analysis

Affiliations

The economic factors that determine smoking abstinence: a survival and mediation analysis

Yanyun He et al. Int J Drug Policy. 2025 Aug.

Abstract

Background: Higher taxes stimulate quit attempts and higher rates of smoking abstinence. Additionally, taxes on tobacco cigarettes and e-cigarettes (ECs) may influence consumers' perceptions of the relative costs of these products. Understanding the relationship between cigarette and EC taxes, cost perceptions, and smoking abstinence is therefore crucial.

Methods: This study utilized longitudinal data from the US arm of the 2016-2020 International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping (ITC 4CV) Surveys and implemented a survival analysis to explore the impact of cigarette and EC taxes on smoking abstinence. A mediation analysis was also performed to test whether the effects of taxes are influenced by individuals' perceptions about the relative cost differences between ECs and cigarettes.

Results: A 10 % increase in cigarette taxes was associated with an 11.1 % increase in smoking abstinence. EC taxes were not associated with smoking abstinence among the overall sample. However, higher EC taxes were associated with greater odds of smoking abstinence among individuals over 40 and lower odds of smoking abstinence among individuals under 40. Relative cost perception did not mediate the effect of taxes on smoking abstinence. Additionally, the odds of quitting were higher among individuals in the high-income group and those who used ECs daily, and lower among individuals in older age groups.

Conclusions: Cigarette taxes have a direct impact on smoking abstinence, independent of cost perceptions. To enhance cessation rates, policymakers should implement targeted strategies such as increasing access to cessation programs, providing financial incentives for quitting, and tailoring tax policies to better support older individuals and those with lower incomes.

Keywords: Cigarette; E-cigarette; Relative cost perception; Taxes.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of competing interest KMC has served as a paid expert witness in litigation filed against cigarette manufacturers. GTF has served as an expert witness/consultant for governments defending their country’s policies/regulations in litigation. All other authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

References

    1. Ross H, Kostova D, Stoklosa M, and Leon M, “The impact of cigarette excise taxes on smoking cessation rates from 1994 to 2010 in Poland, Russia, and Ukraine,” nicotine & tobacco research, vol. 16, no. Suppl_1, pp. S37–S43, 2014. - PubMed
    1. Forster M and Jones AM, “The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: duration analysis of British data,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, vol. 164, no. 3, pp. 517–547, 2001.
    1. Kostova D, Chaloupka FJ, and Shang C, “A duration analysis of the role of cigarette prices on smoking initiation and cessation in developing countries,” The European Journal of Health Economics, vol. 16, pp. 279–288, 2015. - PubMed
    1. Cornelius ME, “Tobacco product use among adults–United States, 2021,” MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report, vol. 72, 2023. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Hall W, “The 1964 US Surgeon General’s report on smoking and health,” Addiction, vol. 117, no. 12, pp. 3170–3175, 2022. - PubMed

MeSH terms

LinkOut - more resources