Global type 1 diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality estimates 2025: Results from the International diabetes Federation Atlas, 11th Edition, and the T1D Index Version 3.0

Graham D Ogle¹, Fei Wang², Aveni Haynes³, Gabriel A Gregory⁴, Thomas W King⁵, Kylie Deng⁶, Dana Dabelea⁷, Steven James⁸, Alicia J Jenkins⁹, Xia Li¹⁰, Ronald C W Ma¹¹, David M Maahs¹², Richard A Oram¹³, Catherine Pihoker¹⁴, Jannet Svensson¹⁵, Zhiguang Zhou¹⁶, Dianna J Magliano¹⁷, Jayanthi Maniam¹⁸

Affiliations

¹ Life for a Child, Diabetes Australia, 26 Arundel St, Glebe, New South Wales 2031, Australia; Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, Camperdown, New South Wales 2050, Australia. Electronic address: gogle@diabetesaustralia.org.au.
² Global Responsibility Department, Breakthrough T1D, 200 Vesey St NE, NY, United States. Electronic address: fwang@breakthrought1d.org.
³ Life for a Child, Diabetes Australia, 26 Arundel St, Glebe, New South Wales 2031, Australia. Electronic address: AHaynes@diabetesaustralia.com.au.
⁴ Life for a Child, Diabetes Australia, 26 Arundel St, Glebe, New South Wales 2031, Australia. Electronic address: gabrielandrew.gregory@health.nsw.gov.au.
⁵ Global Responsibility Department, Breakthrough T1D, 200 Vesey St NE, NY, United States. Electronic address: t.w.king@student.unsw.edu.au.
⁶ Global Responsibility Department, Breakthrough T1D, 200 Vesey St NE, NY, United States. Electronic address: kylie.deng@svi.edu.au.
⁷ Lifecourse Epidemiology of Adiposity and Diabetes Center, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, 13001 East 17th Place, Aurora 80045 CO, United States. Electronic address: dana.dabelea@cuanschutz.edu.
⁸ School of Health, University of the Sunshine Coast, 1 Moreton Bay Parade, Petrie, Queensland 4502, Australia. Electronic address: sjames1@usc.edu.au.
⁹ Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, 75 Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia. Electronic address: Alicia.Jenkins@baker.edu.au.
¹⁰ National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China; Key Laboratory of Diabetes Immunology, (Central South University), Ministry of Education, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China; Department of Metabolism and Endocrinology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China. Electronic address: lixia@csu.edu.cn.
¹¹ Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Hong Kong Institute of Diabetes and Obesity, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, The Chinese University Of Hong Kong Central Ave, Hong Kong; Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, The Chinese University Of Hong Kong Central Ave, Hong Kong. Electronic address: rcwma@cuhk.edu.hk.
¹² Department of Pediatrics and Health Research and Policy, Epidemiology, Stanford University, 279 Campus Dr, Stanford, CA 94305, United States. Electronic address: dmaahs@stanford.edu.
¹³ Clinical and Biomedical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom. Electronic address: R.Oram@exeter.ac.uk.
¹⁴ Department of Pediatrics, University of Washington, 1410 NE Campus Parkway, Seattle, WA 98195, United States. Electronic address: catherine.pihoker@seattlechildrens.org.
¹⁵ Department of Clinical and Translational Research, Steno Diabetes Center Borgmester Ib Juuls Vej 83, 2730 Herlev, Denmark; Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medicine, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark. Electronic address: jannet.svensson.01@regionh.dk.
¹⁶ National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China; Key Laboratory of Diabetes Immunology, (Central South University), Ministry of Education, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China; Department of Metabolism and Endocrinology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China. Electronic address: zhouzhiguang@csu.edu.cn.
¹⁷ Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, 75 Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 21 Chancellor's Walk, Clayton Victoria 3800, Australia. Electronic address: Dianna.Magliano@baker.edu.au.
¹⁸ Life for a Child, Diabetes Australia, 26 Arundel St, Glebe, New South Wales 2031, Australia; University of New South Wales, UNSW, High St, Kensington NSW 2052, Australia.

PMID: 40412624
DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112277

Free article

Global type 1 diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality estimates 2025: Results from the International diabetes Federation Atlas, 11th Edition, and the T1D Index Version 3.0

Graham D Ogle et al. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2025 Jul.

Free article

. 2025 Jul:225:112277.

doi: 10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112277. Epub 2025 May 22.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Life for a Child, Diabetes Australia, 26 Arundel St, Glebe, New South Wales 2031, Australia; Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, Camperdown, New South Wales 2050, Australia. Electronic address: gogle@diabetesaustralia.org.au.
² Global Responsibility Department, Breakthrough T1D, 200 Vesey St NE, NY, United States. Electronic address: fwang@breakthrought1d.org.
³ Life for a Child, Diabetes Australia, 26 Arundel St, Glebe, New South Wales 2031, Australia. Electronic address: AHaynes@diabetesaustralia.com.au.
⁴ Life for a Child, Diabetes Australia, 26 Arundel St, Glebe, New South Wales 2031, Australia. Electronic address: gabrielandrew.gregory@health.nsw.gov.au.
⁵ Global Responsibility Department, Breakthrough T1D, 200 Vesey St NE, NY, United States. Electronic address: t.w.king@student.unsw.edu.au.
⁶ Global Responsibility Department, Breakthrough T1D, 200 Vesey St NE, NY, United States. Electronic address: kylie.deng@svi.edu.au.
⁷ Lifecourse Epidemiology of Adiposity and Diabetes Center, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, 13001 East 17th Place, Aurora 80045 CO, United States. Electronic address: dana.dabelea@cuanschutz.edu.
⁸ School of Health, University of the Sunshine Coast, 1 Moreton Bay Parade, Petrie, Queensland 4502, Australia. Electronic address: sjames1@usc.edu.au.
⁹ Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, 75 Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia. Electronic address: Alicia.Jenkins@baker.edu.au.
¹⁰ National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China; Key Laboratory of Diabetes Immunology, (Central South University), Ministry of Education, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China; Department of Metabolism and Endocrinology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China. Electronic address: lixia@csu.edu.cn.
¹¹ Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Hong Kong Institute of Diabetes and Obesity, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, The Chinese University Of Hong Kong Central Ave, Hong Kong; Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, The Chinese University Of Hong Kong Central Ave, Hong Kong. Electronic address: rcwma@cuhk.edu.hk.
¹² Department of Pediatrics and Health Research and Policy, Epidemiology, Stanford University, 279 Campus Dr, Stanford, CA 94305, United States. Electronic address: dmaahs@stanford.edu.
¹³ Clinical and Biomedical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom. Electronic address: R.Oram@exeter.ac.uk.
¹⁴ Department of Pediatrics, University of Washington, 1410 NE Campus Parkway, Seattle, WA 98195, United States. Electronic address: catherine.pihoker@seattlechildrens.org.
¹⁵ Department of Clinical and Translational Research, Steno Diabetes Center Borgmester Ib Juuls Vej 83, 2730 Herlev, Denmark; Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medicine, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark. Electronic address: jannet.svensson.01@regionh.dk.
¹⁶ National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China; Key Laboratory of Diabetes Immunology, (Central South University), Ministry of Education, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China; Department of Metabolism and Endocrinology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011 Hunan, China. Electronic address: zhouzhiguang@csu.edu.cn.
¹⁷ Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, 75 Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 21 Chancellor's Walk, Clayton Victoria 3800, Australia. Electronic address: Dianna.Magliano@baker.edu.au.
¹⁸ Life for a Child, Diabetes Australia, 26 Arundel St, Glebe, New South Wales 2031, Australia; University of New South Wales, UNSW, High St, Kensington NSW 2052, Australia.

PMID: 40412624
DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112277

Abstract

Aims: Globally, symptomatic type 1 diabetes (T1D) prevalence varies markedly. The International Diabetes Federation 11thEdition Atlas/T1D Index Version 3.0 estimated 2025 numbers for 202 countries/territories ("countries"), and projected to2040.

Methods: The T1D Index model, a Markov model with sub-models for incidence-over-time, adult incidence, and mortality-over-time, was updated with recent population-based T1D incidence, mortality and prevalence studies. For countries without studies, data were extrapolated from countries with similarsettings.

Results: There are estimated 9.5 million people living with T1D globally (compared to 8.4 million in 2021, a 13 % increase), with 1.0 million of these aged 0-14, and 0.8 million aged 15-19 years. In lower-income countries, prevalent cases increased by 20 % from 1.8 million in 2021 to 2.1 million in 2025. Incident cases in 2025 are an estimated 513,000 (164,000 aged 0-14 and 58,000 aged 15-19 years), with incidence increasing by 2.4 % in the last year. Premature deaths are estimated at 174,000, with 17.2 % of these due to non-diagnosis soon after clinical onset. The estimated remaining life expectancy of a 10-year-old child diagnosed with T1D in 2025 varies between countries from 6 to 66 years. There are still no data available for 119 countries. The projectedT1D population for 2040 is estimated to be14.7 million.

Conclusions: The number of global T1D cases is rising quickly, especially in lower-income settings, due to increasing diagnosed incidence, falling mortality and ageing, and population growth. Contemporary data are unavailable for over 50% of all countries, highlighting need for epidemiological studies.

Keywords: Adults; Children; Incidence; Mortality; Prevalence; Type 1 diabetes.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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Global type 1 diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality estimates 2025: Results from the International diabetes Federation Atlas, 11th Edition, and the T1D Index Version 3.0

Affiliations

Global type 1 diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality estimates 2025: Results from the International diabetes Federation Atlas, 11th Edition, and the T1D Index Version 3.0

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

MeSH terms

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Medical