Global Burden of Kidney Cancer Attributable to High Body Mass Index in Adults Aged 60 and Older from 1990 to 2021 and Projections to 2040: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract

Background: With global aging, cancer burden rises. Kidney cancer is significantly influenced by high body mass index (BMI), especially in the elderly. This study analyzes the burden of kidney cancer attributable to high BMI in those aged ≥60, clarifying causes and future trends.

Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we assessed kidney cancer burden due to high BMI in population aged ≥60 from 1990 to 2021, comparing deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized rate (ASR) of DALYs (ASDR), and mortality (ASMR). Stratified by Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), region, sex, and age, we evaluated spatiotemporal trends and inequalities. Finally, the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model predicted burden changes through 2040.

Results: From 1990 to 2021, DALYs and deaths from high BMI-induced kidney cancer in those aged ≥60 increased by 165.82% and 186.39%, driven by population growth. In 2021, ASDR was 45.55/100,000 and ASMR 2.39/100,000. Regional differences were significant. DALYs and deaths expanded, especially in those aged ≥95. Males had higher burden than females. SDI correlated positively with ASDR and ASMR (r>0, P<0.05). Health inequalities continue to rise. By 2040, burden is projected to rise, especially in low-middle and low SDI regions, more in males.

Conclusion: This study shows a significant increase in kidney cancer burden due to high BMI in those aged ≥60 over 32 years, driven by population growth. Disparities across regions, genders, and age groups highlight the need for targeted prevention and early intervention, especially for high-risk groups (males, elderly, low-middle SDI regions), to reduce burden and optimize healthcare resource allocation.

Keywords: SDI; elderly; gender differences; high BMI; kidney cancer; trend projection.

Figure 1

Trends in age-standardized DALY and death rates of kidney cancer attributable to high BMI in adults aged 60 and older, 1990–2021. (A) Age-standardized DALY rates for male globally, in 5 SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions; (B) Age-standardized DALY rates for female globally, in 5 SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions; (C) Age-standardized death rates for male globally, in 5 SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions; (D) Age-standardized death rates for female globally, in 5 SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions.

Figure 2

Changes in burden of kidney cancer attributable to high BMI in adults aged 60 and older, 1990–2021. (A) Percentage change in DALY numbers and age-standardized rates, and EAPC in age-standardized DALY rates for both sexes globally, in 5 SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions; (B) Percentage change in death numbers and age-standardized rates, and EAPC in age-standardized death rates for both sexes globally, in 5 SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions.

Figure 3

Global distribution of changes in burden of kidney cancer attributable to high BMI in adults aged 60 and older, 1990–2021. (A) Percentage change in age-standardized DALY rates for both sexes in 204 countries; (B) EAPC in age-standardized DALY rates for both sexes in 204 countries; (C) Percentage change in age-standardized death rates for both sexes in 204 countries; (D) EAPC in age-standardized death rates for both sexes in 204 countries.

Figure 4

Age-specific burden of kidney cancer attributable to high BMI in adults aged 60 and older, 1990 and 2021. (A) Age-standardized DALY rates by 5-year age groups (60+ years) for males globally, in 5 SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions; (B) Age-standardized DALY rates by 5-year age groups (60+ years) for female globally, in 5 SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions; (C) Age-standardized death rates by 5-year age groups (60+ years) for males in 204 countries; (D) Age-standardized death rates by 5-year age groups (60+ years) for females in 204 countries.

Figure 5

Changes in age-specific burden of kidney cancer attributable to high BMI in adults aged 60 and older, 1990–2021. (A) Percentage change in DALY numbers and age-standardized rates, and EAPC in age-standardized DALY rates by 5-year age groups (60+ years) for males globally, in 5 SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions; (B) Percentage change in DALY numbers and age-standardized rates, and EAPC in age-standardized DALY rates by 5-year age groups (60+ years) for females globally, in 5 SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions; (C) Percentage change in death numbers and age-standardized rates, and EAPC in age-standardized death rates by 5-year age groups (60+ years) for males in 204 countries; (D) Percentage change in death numbers and age-standardized rates, and EAPC in age-standardized death rates by 5-year age groups (60+ years) for females in 204 countries.

Figure 6

Correlation between burden of kidney cancer attributable to high BMI and socio-demographic index (SDI) in adults aged 60 and older, both sexes. (A) Correlation between age-standardized DALY rates and SDI for 21 GBD regions, 1990–2021; (B) Correlation between age-standardized DALY rates and SDI for 204 countries in 2021; (C) Correlation between age-standardized death rates and SDI for 21 GBD regions, 1990 −2021; (D) Correlation between age-standardized death rates and SDI for 204 countries in 2021.

Figure 7

Health inequality analysis of kidney cancer burden attributable to high BMI in adults aged 60 and older, 1990–2021, both sexes. (A) Slope index of inequality for DALYs in 204 countries; (B) Concentration index for DALYs in 204 countries; (C) Slope index of inequality for deaths in 204 countries; (D) Concentration index for deaths in 204 countries.

Figure 8

Decomposition analysis of kidney cancer burden attributable to high BMI for both sexes, males, and females globally, and 5 SDI regions.

Figure 9

Projected global trends in DALY and death numbers and age-standardized rates for kidney cancer attributable to high BMI among adults aged 60 and older, both sexes combined, 2022–2040. (A) Projected global trends in DALY numbers and age-standardized rates for kidney cancer attributable to high BMI among adults aged 60 and older, both sexes combined, 2022–2040; (B) Projected global trends in death numbers and age-standardized rates for kidney cancer attributable to high BMI among adults aged 60 and older, both sexes combined, 2022–2040.