The Akcaalan Mortality Score: A Novel Mortality Score to Predict 3-Year Mortality for Elderly Hip Fractures

Abstract

Backround/Objectives: This study aimed to create a scoring system that can predict the mortality for hip fractures in the elderly, which have high mortality and morbidity rates, by using blood parameters and demographic data at admission. Methods: Patients admitted to the hospital due to a hip fracture between January 2016 and March 2021 were included in the study. A scoring system was created using the patient's age and sex at first admission and hemoglobin, albumin and creatinine levels, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and monocyte-lymphocyte ratios. The scoring system was created by determining different cut-off values for each of these seven parameters. A total mortality score was determined for each patient using this scoring system. The 3-year follow-up for patients' mortality during follow-up was recorded separately for each patient. Following the inclusion and exclusion criteria, the data of 1075 patients were included in the study. Results: All parameters listed in the methodology section were statistically significantly different between the patients who survived and those who died in the three years after hip fracture surgery (p = 0.0001). The total scores obtained using the mortality scoring system created by combining these parameters were also statistically significantly different between the two groups (p = 0.0001). If the mortality score is >11.5, the probability of the patient with a hip fracture dying within the first three years is 63.9%. Conclusion: The Akçaalan Mortality Score can provide predictive data for preoperative prediction to determine the 3-year mortality of elderly patients with hip fractures and may be helpful in terms of surgical timing. The name of this scoring system comes from the lastname of the corresponding author.

Keywords: elderly; fracture; hip; mortality; score.

Figure 1

Graph of ROC Curve analysis for mortality score.