Global, regional, and national burden of gout in people aged 15-39 years from 1990 to 2021: Trends, cross-country inequalities and forecast to 2035

Abstract

Objectives: To evaluate the trends and cross-country inequalities of gout burden in people aged 15-39 years from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2035.

Methods: The study employed estimates from Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021 to assess prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of gout across global, demographic, GBD regional, national, sociodemographic index (SDI) regional, and risk factor levels. Temporal trends in the age-standardized rates (ASRs) of prevalence, incidence and YLDs were assessed by Joinpoint regression, while associations between SDI and ASRs were examined through Spearman correlation. Health inequalities were measured using the slope index of inequality and the concentration index. Future trends were forecast by a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results: The burden of gout increased in global, demographic, GBD regional, and SDI level from 1990 to 2021. Males, the 35-39 years subgroup, and High-SDI regions experienced the highest burden. High-income North America owned the highest ASRs while East Asia reported the largest numbers. A moderate positive correlation was observed between gout burden and SDI for nations. Both absolute and relative inequalities increased. Males had higher YLDs due to high body mass index (BMI), females due to kidney dysfunction. Although ASRs were predicted to decrease from 2020 to 2035, numbers were predicted to rise.

Conclusions: The gout burden gout in people aged 15-39 years increased with notable inequalities. Despite projected ASRs decreases, overall numbers were likely to increase, highlighting the urgent need for targeted interventions and public health strategies.

Keywords: Global burden of disease; Gout; Health inequality; Prediction.