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. 2025 May 14:13:1571579.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1571579. eCollection 2025.

Global burden and trends of self-harm from 1990 to 2021, with predictions to 2050

Li Xie  1 , Liangchen Tang  1 , Yixin Liu  1 , Zhenchao Dong  1 , Xiaojun Zhang  1
Affiliations

Global burden and trends of self-harm from 1990 to 2021, with predictions to 2050

Li Xie et al. Front Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: Self-harm has become a major public health problem globally. Data on the burden of self-harm in this study were taken from the GBD 2021. This study aimed to quantify historical trends (1990-2021) in the global burden of self-harm across genders, age groups, and regions, and project future changes (2022-2050) through Bayesian forecasting models.

Methods: Based on the seven GBD super-regions, the burden of self-harm was analyzed by region, age, and gender from 1990 to 2021. Hierarchical statistical approach was used to predict trends in global and regional changes in the burden of self-harm, 2022-2050.

Result: In 2021, the global DALYs and death counts from self-harm were 33.5 million (95% UI: 31.3-35.8) and 746.4 thousand (95% UI: 691.8-799.8). The region with the highest number of DALYs and deaths is South Asia and the highest age-standardized rates of DALYs and mortality were in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia. Globally, the burden of self-harm was higher for males than for females. DALYs rates were highest among adolescents and young adults (20-29 years), whereas mortality rates showed a predominantly age-progressive pattern with the highest burden observed in middle-aged and older populations, albeit with a modest decline in the oldest age groups. Forecasting models showed a sustained decline in the global burden of self-harm from 2022-2050.

Conclusion: The results highlight the need for policymakers to allocate resources to high-burden regions (e.g., South Asia and Eastern Europe), to implement gender- and age-specific prevention programs, and to strengthen cross-sectoral collaboration to address the underlying social determinants of self-harm. The findings call for strengthened mental health services and targeted interventions to effectively respond to and reduce the devastating impact of self-harm on individuals and the global community.

Keywords: DALYs; disease burden; global; mortality; self-harm.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The age distribution of DALYs and mortality rates for self-harm by GBD super-region in 2021. (A) DALYs rate for self-harm. (B) Mortality rate for self-harm.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The gender distribution of age-standardized DALYs and mortality rates for self-harm by GBD super-region in 2021. (A) Age-standardized DALYs rates for self-harm. (B) Age-standardized mortality rate for self-harm.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The distribution of age-standardized DALYs and mortality rates for self-harm in 204 countries and territories in 2021. (A) Regional distribution of the age-standardized DALYs rates. (B) Regional distribution of the age-standardized mortality rate. Source: GBD 2021 Visualization Tool (IHME).
Figure 4
Figure 4
Prediction of age-standardized DALYs and mortality rates for self-harm by GBD super-region from 2022 to 2050. (A) Age-standardized DALYs rate for self-harm. (B) Age-standardized mortality rate for self-harm. Source: GBD 2021 Visualization Tool (IHME).
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