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. 2025 Jun;19(6):e70123.
doi: 10.1111/irv.70123.

Evaluating the Impact of Different Methods on the Timing and Duration of RSV Epidemics: Analysis of Surveillance Data From the GERi (Global Epidemiology of RSV in Hospitalized and Community Care) Study

Lisa Staadegaard  1 , Marco Del Riccio  1   2 , Susanne Heemskerk  1 , Michel Dückers  1   3 , Rodrigo A Fasce  4 , Patricia Bustos  5 , Q Sue Huang  6 , Cheryl Cohen  7   8 , Jocelyn Moyes  7 , Vernon Jian Ming Lee  9 , Li Wei Ang  9 , Susana Monge  10 , Isabel Martínez-Pino  11   12 , Mathieu Bangert  13 , Rolf Kramer  13 , John Paget  1 , Foekje F Stelma  1 , Jojanneke van Summeren  1 , Saverio Caini  1
Affiliations

Evaluating the Impact of Different Methods on the Timing and Duration of RSV Epidemics: Analysis of Surveillance Data From the GERi (Global Epidemiology of RSV in Hospitalized and Community Care) Study

Lisa Staadegaard et al. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2025 Jun.

Abstract

Background: We previously reviewed methods for estimating the timing of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemics. This study examines the impact of various estimation methods on determining the start, end, duration, and capture rate of RSV epidemics.

Methods: We applied eight estimation methods to RSV surveillance data from the Global Epidemiology of RSV (GERi) study, covering Chile, New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, and the United States: 3% and 10% positivity rate, moving epidemic method (MEM), mean positivity, 1.2% total detections, mean and 60% mean number, and 75% average annual percentage (AAP). We compared the median start, end, duration, and capture rate of RSV epidemics obtained from these methods.

Results: Within countries, the median duration of RSV epidemics varied by over 10 weeks, and the median capture rates ranged from > 95 to < 60%, depending on the estimation method. Generally, the 3% positivity rate method identified the longest RSV epidemics (earliest median start and latest end, and highest capture rate). The 10% positivity rate, MEM, and 75% AAP methods indicated the shortest RSV epidemics with the lowest capture rate. The remaining four methods produced intermediate results.

Conclusions: These findings underscore the importance of selecting estimation methods suited to the surveillance system and the intended use, whether for outbreak alert, planning, or targeted interventions.

Keywords: epidemic; estimation method; respiratory syncytial virus.

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Conflict of interest statement

M.B. and R.K. are Sanofi employees and may hold shares and/or stock options in the company. C.C. has received grant funds from US CDC and Taskforce for Global Health related to the current manuscript, and from BMGF and Sanofi Pasteur not related to the current manuscript. F.F.S., L.S., S.H., M.D., J.v.S., and S.C. report that Nivel has received RSV research grants from the Foundation for Influenza Epidemiology and Sanofi Pasteur. The remaining authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Seasonality of RSV by country: 3‐week moving average positivity rate in Chile, New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, and Spain.
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Seasonality of RSV by country: 3‐week moving average positivity rate in the United States by HHS region.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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