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Multicenter Study
. 2025 Jul 1;82(7):722-733.
doi: 10.1001/jamaneurol.2025.1481.

Prognostic Factors for Multiple Sclerosis Symptoms in Radiologically Isolated Syndrome

Nicolás Fissolo  1   2 Sabine Schaedelin  3   4   5 Luisa M Villar  6 Jan D Lünemann  7 Jorge Correale  8 Konrad Rejdak  9 Nicholas Schwab  7 Andreu Vilaseca  1 Friederike Held  10 Antonio García-Merino  11 Stefan Bittner  12 María Trojano  13 Roberto Furlan  14 Hayrettin Tumani  15 Francisco Pérez-Miralles  16 Igal Rosenstein  17 Daniela Galimberti  18   19 Gary Álvarez-Bravo  20 Eric Thouvenot  21   22 Sara Llufriu  23 Samia J Khoury  24 Robert Hoepner  25 Sergio Martínez-Yélamos  26 Harald Hegen  27 Jelena Drulovic  28 Neus Téllez-Lara  29 Michael Khalil  30 Johanna Oechtering  4   5 Ángel Pérez-Sempere  31 Alfredo Rodríguez-Antigüedad  32 José Enrique-Martínez  33 Eva Strijbis  34 Joep Killestein  34 Sara Eichau  35 Elena Colombo  36 Jonas Schaller-Nagengast  15 Luciana Midaglia  1 Antonio J Sánchez-López  11 Enric Monreal  37 Andrew Chan  25 Friedemann Paul  38 Àlex Rovira  39 Mar Tintoré  1   40 Jan Lycke  17 Frauke Zipp  12 Bernhard Hemmer  10   41 Jens Kuhle  4   5 Xavier Montalban  1   2   41 Manuel Comabella  1   2 RIS Study GroupUwe K Zettl  42 Simon Falk  7 Lucía Gutiérrez  1 Magda Gasior  9 José Luis Veiga González  6 Roser Ferrer  43 Ana Quiroga-Varela  20 Franziska Bachhuber  15 Lucienne Costa-Frossard  39
Affiliations
Multicenter Study

Prognostic Factors for Multiple Sclerosis Symptoms in Radiologically Isolated Syndrome

Nicolás Fissolo et al. JAMA Neurol. .

Abstract

Importance: Understanding the risk factors for symptom development will allow clinicians to stratify people with radiologically isolated syndrome (pwRIS) more effectively and tailor their management strategies accordingly.

Objective: To identify prognostic factors at radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS) diagnosis associated with the development of multiple sclerosis (MS) symptoms.

Design, setting, and participants: This cohort study was performed in samples collected between July 2004 and September 2022 and included 33 MS centers. All pwRIS who meet the 2017 McDonald criteria for dissemination in space with a sample collected near the diagnostic magnetic resonance imaging were included. No patients who met eligibility criteria were excluded. The data were analyzed from July 2024 to November 2024.

Exposure: Body fluid biomarkers and environmental factors in pwRIS.

Main outcomes and measures: The main outcome was the development of MS symptoms. Analyses involved univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, including age, sex, and treatment following RIS diagnosis, as additional independent variables.

Results: The study included 273 pwRIS (mean age, 38.6 [SD 11.6] years; 207 women [75.8%] and 66 men [24.2%]) with a median follow-up of 5.0 [IQR, 2.5-7.7] years. A total of 101 pwRIS developed MS symptoms (37.0%). The presence of immunoglobulin G oligoclonal bands (OBs) (hazard ratio [HR], 5.09; 95% CI, 2.36-10.97; P < .001), immunoglobulin M OBs (HR, 2.58; 95% CI, 1.61-4.14; P < .001), and a κ free light chain index of 6.1 or more (HR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.37-5.67; P = .005) were associated with MS symptoms. High cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light chain (NfL) levels (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.18-1.45; P < .001) and high serum NfL z scores (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.16-1.72; P = .005) were also associated with an increased risk of MS symptoms. In contrast, high anti-cytomegalovirus titers (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.38-0.93; P = .02) and high ultraviolet radiation exposure in the year before (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.37-0.74; P < .001) and the year after (HR, 0.54, 95% CI, 0.38-0.75; P < .001) diagnosis reduced the risk of MS symptoms. For all these prognostic factors, the multivariable analysis yielded similar results. The combination of high serum NfL z scores and positive immunoglobulin G OBs conferred a 5-year risk of clinical symptoms of 58.3% (95% CI, 45.9-67.9). This risk increased to 81.6% (95% CI, 60.9-91.4) in pwRIS who were younger and positive for immunoglobulin M OBs.

Conclusions and relevance: The study elucidates the prognostic factors that significantly impact the risk of developing MS symptoms in pwRIS at diagnosis, thereby, enhancing the potential for tailored clinical interventions.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Dr Villar reported personal fees and grants from Roche Pharma, Novartis, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Merck and personal fees from Biogen and Neuraxpharm outside the submitted work. Dr Lünemann reported personal fees from AbbVie, Alexion, Adivo, Argenx, Biogen, Merck, Moderna, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi, Takeda, CSL Behring, UCB Pharma, Amgen, and Janssen-Cilag and grants from Moderna, Alexion, Argenx, and Roche outside the submitted work. Dr Correale reported personal fees from Merck Argentina and Roche Argentina grants and personal fees from Novartis Argentina and Biogen outside the submitted work. Dr Schwab reported grants from DFG, Roche, and Biogen outside the submitted work. Dr Bittner reported grants from the Hermann and Lilly Schilling Foundation and the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft during the conduct of the study; personal fees from Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Hexal, Merck Healthcare, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi, and Teva and grants from Novartis outside the submitted work. Dr Troiano reported personal fees from Sandoz, Roche, Novartis, Merck, Alexion, and Biogen outside the submitted work. Dr Furlan reported personal fees from Sanofi, Novartis, Novartis, Bristol Myers Squibb, Biogen, Neuraxpharma, Alexion, and Roche and grants from Merck and Roche outside the submitted work. Dr Tumani reported personal fees from Alexion, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celgene, Janssen Cilag, Merck, Roche, Siemens, Teva, Viatris, Hexal, and Horizon, nonfinancial support from Bayer, Fresenius, Biotechne, Fujirebio, and Quanterix, and grants from Genzyme Sanofi, Novartis, and Chemische Fabrik Karl Bucher outside the submitted work. Dr Pérez-Miralles reported personal fees from Sanofi, Neuraxpharm, Bristol Myers Squibb, Janssen, and Roche outside the submitted work. Dr Rosenstein reported personal fees from Sanofi, Biogen, Novartis, and Merck outside the submitted work. Dr Thouvenot reported grants from Public Health Research Consortium National, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Novartis, Biogen, France SEP, and the EDMUS Foundation, personal fees from Biogen, Merck, Novartis, Roche, and Sanofi outside the submitted work. Dr Llufriu reported grants from Instituto de Salud Carlos III, the Agency for Management of University and Research Grants, and Bristol Myers Squibb and personal fees from Biogen, Novartis, Merck, Bristol Myers Squibb, Johnson & Johnson, and Sanofi outside the submitted work. Dr Khoury reported personal fees from Biogen outside the submitted work. Dr Hoepner reported grants from Bristol Myers Squibb, Biogen, ChiesiAI, Swiss MS Society, and the Sitem Insel Support Fund outside the submitted work and speaker/advisor honorary from Merck, Novartis, Roche, Biogen, Alexion, Sanofi, Janssen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Teva/Meph, and Almirall. Dr Martínez-Yélamos reported support for attending congress and scientific meetings from Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Janssen, Merck, Neuraxpharm, Novartis, Roche and Sandoz; the institution where he works (Hospital Universitari de Bellvitge/ Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica de Bellvitge) has received and destined exclusively to support the research of the unit, fees for advisory council, collaborations, sponsorships, donations, and advice from Almirall, Bayer, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celgene, Genzyme, Horizon/Amgen, Janssen, Kern Pharma, Lilly, Merck, Neuraxpharm, Novartis, Roche, Sandoz, and Sanofi. Dr Hegen reported personal fees from Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi-Genzyme, Amgen, Janssen, Merck, and Teva and grants from Novartis outside the submitted work. Dr Oechtering reported grants from Swiss MS Society, Roche, and Novartis outside the submitted work. Dr Killestein reported consulting fees paid to their institution from F Hoffmann-La Roche, Biogen, Merck, Novartis, Sanofi, Immunic, and Sandoz, outside the submitted work. Dr Eichau reported personal fees from Novartis, Sanofi, Biogen, Bristol Meyers Squibb, Roche, Almirall, and Neuraxpharm outside the submitted work. Dr Colombo reported personal fees from Roche, Merck, Sanofi, Novartis, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Janssen, and Alexion outside the submitted work. Dr Zettl reported personal fees from Almirall, Alexion, Bayer, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Roche, Norvartis, Merck, and Janssen during the conduct of the study. Dr Falk reported grants from German Research Foundation, and Roche during the conduct of the study. Dr Quiroga-Varela reported grants from the Fundación Francisco Soria y Melguizo, Merck, Novartis, and Horizon Therapeutics. Dr Costa-Frossard reported receiving speaker fees and travel support and/or serving on advisory boards for Biogen, Sanofi, Merck, Bayer, Novartis, Roche, Teva, Celgene, Ipsen, Biopas, Bristol Myers Squibb, Janssen, and Almirall. Dr Monreal reported personal fees from Biogen, Merck, Novartis, Roche, Almirall, Johnson & Johnson, Bristol Myers Squibb, Sanofi, Neuraxpharma, and PSI outside the submitted work. Dr Chan reported speaker’s/board honoraria for hospital research funds from Alexion, Horizon, Merck KGaA, Novartis, Janssen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Roche, Sanofi Genzyme, Teva, and CSL Behring and grants from CSL Behring, Biogen, Novartis, UCB, the Swiss National Foundation, and the European Union outside the submitted work. Dr Paul reported consulting/lecture fees from Roche, F. Hoffmann-La Roche, Alexion, Merck KGaA, Medscape, UCB, BioNTech, Bristol Myers Squibb, Hexal AG, Novartis, Teva, Horizon Therapeutics, and Sanofi, lecture fees from MICE Service GmbH, Janssen-Cilag, Chugai Pharma, FU Conform, Ethos, Biogen, VINDICO Medical Education, and Touch Independent Medical Education, travel expenses from the University Süd-Dänemark, other from Deutsche Multiple Sklerose Gesellschaft, the University Oxford, the International Multiple Sclerosis Cognition Society, Janssen, Massachusetts General Hospital, and Universitätsmedizin Göttingen, and consulting relationships with Sandoz and Ridgeline Discovery outside the submitted work. Dr Rovira reported personal fees from Novartis, Bristol Myers Squibb, Roche, Biogen, Sanofi, Bayer, and Merck outside the submitted work. Dr Tintore reported personal fees from Almirall, Bayer Schering Pharma, Biogen, Genzyme, Immunic Therapeutics, Janssen, Merck-Serono, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi-Aventis, Viela Bio, and Teva during the conduct of the study and personal fees from Parexel, UCB Biopharma, and the Relapse Adjudication Committee outside the submitted work. Dr Lycke reported personal fees for travel, lecture honoraria, and service on scientific advisory boards Biogen, Sanofi, Merck, and Sandoz and grants from Sanofi outside the submitted work. Dr Hemmer reported grants from the German Research Foundation, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, and the European Commission during the conduct of the study; personal fees from Novartis, Roche, Sandoz, Polpharma, GLG Consulting, and AllergyCare, and grants from Polpharma and Roche outside the submitted work. Dr Kuhle reported grants from the Swiss MS Society, the Swiss National Research Foundation, Progressive MS Alliance, Immunic, Merck, Neurogenesis, Novartis, Quanterix, Roche, and Stata DX outside the submitted work. Dr Montalban reported payment to their institution from AbbVie, Actelion, Alexion, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb/Celgene, EMD Serono, Genzyme, Hoffmann-La Roche, Immunic, Janssen Medday, Medscape, Merck, Mylan, Nervgen, Neuraxpharm, Novartis, PeerVoice, Samsung-Biosys, Sandoz, Sanofi-Genzyme, Teva Pharmaceutical, TG Therapeutics, and Excemed outside the submitted work. No other disclosures were reported.

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