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. 2025 Jun 2;25(1):425.
doi: 10.1186/s12876-025-04042-3.

Global, regional, and national burden of inflammatory bowel disease in persons aged 60-89 years from 1992 to 2021

Zhou Zhang  1 , Na Du  2 , Chun-Mei Xu  1 , Wei Chen  1 , Ting-Ting-Chen  3 , Yu Xiao  4
Affiliations

Global, regional, and national burden of inflammatory bowel disease in persons aged 60-89 years from 1992 to 2021

Zhou Zhang et al. BMC Gastroenterol. .

Abstract

Background: The global burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasing, but detailed data on older adults remain scarce.

Objective: This study describes trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of IBD among individuals aged 60-89 years from 1992 to 2021 at global, regional, and national levels, and forecasts the epidemiological status for 2030.

Methods: We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, covering 204 countries and territories. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression models. Decomposition analysis assessed the impacts of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes. The Nordpred model forecasted 2030 incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of IBD among older adults.

Results: From 1992 to 2021, the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of IBD among older adults increased (AAPC 0.34). Conversely, the prevalence rate (ASPR) slightly decreased (AAPC - 0.04). Both mortality (ASMR) and DALYs significantly declined (AAPC - 0.60 and - 0.49, respectively). High SDI regions had the highest ASIR and ASPR, with Middle SDI regions experiencing the fastest ASIR growth. Population growth accounted for 117.77% of the overall increase in the IBD burden. By 2030, the incidence rate is expected to rise, but prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates are predicted to decrease.

Conclusion: The incidence rate of IBD among older adults is rising, while prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates are declining. Significant regional variations underscore the need for targeted public health policies.

Keywords: Disease burden; Global epidemiology; Inflammatory bowel disease; Sociodemographic index.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: Not applicable. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Global Burden of Inflammatory Bowel Disease among older adults in 204 Countries and territories in 2021. (A) Age-standardized Incidence Rate; (B) Age-standardized Prevalence Rate; (C) Age-standardized Mortality Rate; (D) Age-standardized DALYs
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Joinpoint Regression Analysis of Global Inflammatory Bowel Disease among older adults from 1992 to 2021. (A) Age-standardized Incidence Rate; (B) Age-standardized Prevalence Rate; (C) Age-standardized Mortality Rate; (D) Age-standardized DALY
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Changes in Global DALYs for Inflammatory Bowel Disease among older adultsfrom 1992 to 2021 Based on Population-Level Determinants: Population Growth, Aging, and Epidemiological Changes. The black dot represents the overall change contributed by all three factors combined. For each factor, the size of positive values indicates the corresponding increase caused by that factor, and the size of negative values indicates the corresponding decrease caused by the related factor
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Projections of Global Incidence, Prevalence, Mortality, and DALYs for Inflammatory Bowel Disease among older adults. (A) Number and age-standardized rate of incidence; (B) Number and age-standardized rate of prevalence; (C) Number and age-standardized rate of mortality; (D) Number and age-standardized rate of DALYs
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