Global disease burden of colorectal cancer attributable to high BMI has more than doubled over the past 30 years

Abstract

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) significantly contributes to global cancer-related mortality and morbidity, with a high body mass index (BMI) being a key modifiable risk factor. Understanding the evolving burden of CRC attributable to high BMI is essential for informing public health strategies and meeting global noncommunicable disease targets.

Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we examined the age-, sex-, and location-specific CRC burden attributable to obesity. Trends in age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were assessed using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC).

Results: Between 1990 and 2021, CRC deaths attributable to obesity increased from 41,535.8 (95% UI 17,665.6-67,379) to 99,268.0 (95% UI 42,956.3-157,948.8), while DALYs increased from 15,042.1 (95% UI 4,297.8-16,319.7) to 64,664.2 (95% UI 102,159.3-375,234.0). High-SDI regions showed declining ASDR (EAPC = -0.64, 95% UI -0.69 to -0.59) and DALY rates (EAPC = -0.48, 95% UI -0.52 to -0.43) but retained the highest absolute burden. In contrast, the middle- and low-SDI regions exhibited alarming increases in both ASDR and DALY rates, with EAPCs exceeding 2.0. East Asia reported the highest absolute mortality and DALY burden, whereas Australasia showed the lowest burden and declining trends. Inequality in the CRC burden widened substantially between the high- and low-SDI regions during the study period.

Conclusion: The global burden of CRC attributable to high BMI doubled from 1990 to 2021, with increasing disparities across SDI regions, especially in the low- and middle-SDI areas. Urgent strategies focusing on obesity prevention, early detection, and equitable care are essential to reduce this burden and achieve Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

Keywords: colorectal cancer; global burden; high body mass index; prevention; public health.

Figure 1

Global trends and regional disparities in colorectal cancer (CRC) burden attributable to high BMI from 1990 to 2021. (A–F) Trends in mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to high BMI-related CRC across sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles from 1990 to 2021. Panels (A), (B), and (C) show mortality number, all-age mortality rate and age-standardized death rate trends, while panels (D), (E), and (F) show DALYs number, all-age DALYs rate, and age-standardized DALY rate trends. −0.65 (−0.71–−0.59). (I) Global age distribution of age-standardized mortality rates (ASDR) for CRC attributable to high BMI in 2021. (J) Frontier analysis with the black line representing the defined frontier. Black dots correspond to the 14 countries exhibiting the greatest effective difference. Blue dots highlight the top five low-SDI countries with the most pronounced effective difference, while red dots indicate high-SDI countries and territories demonstrating the largest effective difference. (K) Health inequality analysis. (L) Projected trends in CRC cases attributable to high BMI by sex and year. (M, N) The age-standardized death rates of colorectal cancer attributable to obesity for 204 countries and territories. (M) age-standardized death rate; (N) disability-adjusted life-years.