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. 2020;5(1):18.
doi: 10.1007/s41133-020-00037-9. Epub 2020 Jul 1.

Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 Outbreak on High-Risk Age Group Population in India

Harjit Pal Singh  1 , Vikas Khullar  1 , Monica Sharma  2
Affiliations

Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 Outbreak on High-Risk Age Group Population in India

Harjit Pal Singh et al. Augment Hum Res. 2020.

Abstract

The new pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), originated at Wuhan, Hubei province, China in December 2019, threatening the world and becomes the public health crisis throughout the globe. Due to changing data and behavior of the current epidemic, appropriate pharmacological techniques to cure are getting delayed day by day. The estimated trends of the global and Indian region for COVID-19 epidemic were predicted for the next 21 days till 05/05/2020 on the data recorded till 14/04/2020 in the present work. The main focus of the work was to estimate the trends of COVID-19 outbreak on population, especially the high-risk age group of elderly people (with age 50 years and greater) in the Republic of India. It was observed that this identified age-group could be more prone to SARS-CoV-2 virus infection and chances of death in this age group could be more. The high-risk Indian states/regions were also identified throughout the nation and trends for infection, death, and cured cases were predicted for the next 21 days. The outcome of the present work was presented in terms of suggestions that the proper social and medical care for the identified high-risk age group of elderly people of the Indian population should be required to prevent the COVID-19 community transmission. The work also supported the extension in countrywide proper lockdown, mass testing, and also the strict rules to follow social distancing.

Keywords: ARIMA; COVID-19; Forecasting; Machine Learning; Old age population; Prediction.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interestWe (Authors) have no conflict of interest regarding manuscript entitled “Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 Outbreak on High-Risk Age Group Population in India”.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
World trends and predictions of COVID-19
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
India trends and predictions of COVID-19
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Projected impact of COVID-19 on population of India (census-2011)
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Projected impact of COVID-19 on population of India (projected population-2019)
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Comparison of trends and prediction of COVID-19 in states/regions of India
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
States/region wise prediction of COVID-19 in India till 05/05/2020
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
States/region wise prediction of COVID-19 in India till 05/05/2020
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Impact analysis of COVID-19 on age group (50 years and greater) in India
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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