Temporal trends and public health implications of dengue in Guatemala: A decade of challenges and emerging threats (2013-2024)

Abstract

Background: Dengue, a rapidly spreading arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, poses a persistent public health challenge in Guatemala. Rising temperatures increased economic activity, and low population density contribute to the country's dengue burden, with outbreaks peaking during the rainy season.

Objectives: This study aimed to identify a temporal trend of the dengue epidemic in Guatemala over a decade (2013-2024).

Methods: We collected month- and year-wise dengue case data from 29 provinces between 2013 and October 15, 2024 from the Guatemala's Ministry of Public Health and Social Assistance database. Additional age-stratified data for individuals under 18 years of age were extracted from the national dengue surveillance databases maintained by the Ministry of Public Health of Guatemala for 2019, 2023 and 2024.

Results: The dengue cases increased significantly from 9357 in 2013 to 117,942 by October 15, 2024, with a notable rise in severe cases and associated mortality. Spatial dynamics also shifted, with the epicenter moving from Huehuetenango in 2019 to central Guatemala in 2024. Children aged 5-9 years were disproportionately affected, with hospitalization rates and case fatalities increasing significantly.

Conclusions: These findings underscore a critical public health crisis, necessitating enhanced surveillance and year-round vector control to mitigate the growing dengue threat in Guatemala.

Keywords: Dengue; Guatemala; Temporal dynamics.

Figure 1

(a) Stacked bar graph showing the yearly occurrence of dengue cases grouped by disease categories. (b) Line plot showing the monthly occurrence of dengue cases for each year from 2013. (c) The number of dengue cases in each Guatemala province. The total number of dengue cases in each year is labeled above. A total of 23 provinces were included on the map. Provisions Guatemala Central, Guatemala Nor-Occidente, Guatemala Nor-Oriente, and Guatemala Sur were combined into Guatemala, and the same was done for Petén Norte, Petén Sur Occidental, and Petén Sur Oriental due to the lack of availability of map data in the R package.

Figure 2

(a) The number of dengue cases in each Guatemala province under 18 years. The total number of dengue cases and the hospitalized cases in each year are labeled above. (b) Year-wise bar plots indicated the proportion of dengue cases in different age groups in 2019, 2023, and 2024. (c) The number of death cases among hospitalized patients.