Long-Term Trends and Projections of Multiple Myeloma Across Three Continents: A Comparative Study of China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England and France (1990-2036)

Abstract

Objectives: The objective of this study was to analyse trends in the burden of multiple myeloma (MM) in the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England, and France) to understand country differences and factors.

Methods: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 was utilised to analyse the incidence and mortality trends of MM from 1990 to 2021. An age-period-cohort model was employed to evaluate the disparities among nations, while an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast the impending developments over the subsequent 15 years.

Results: The study found the burden of MM continues to increase in China and the Russian Federation, with significant increases particularly in older age groups. In the United States of America, age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardised death rates (ASDR) showed a downward trend, reflecting a reduction in the burden of disease. In England and France, ASIR increased overall, but ASDR remained stable. The burden of MM was found to be significantly correlated with age, period effect, and birth cohort through age-period-cohort analysis. The ARIMA model predictions indicated an increasing trend in ASIR and a stable ASDR in China and the Russian Federation, while in England, France, and the United States of America, there was an overall stabilisation of ASIR and ASDR.

Conclusions: Significant differences in the burden of MM were found among the five countries. China and the Russian Federation are facing an increasing MM burden, particularly in older age groups, while the United States of America, England and France have made progress through early screening and treatment. The study suggests focusing on older populations, promoting early diagnosis and personalised treatment, and addressing lifestyle and environmental factors. Future research should examine risk factors across countries to inform public health policy.

Keywords: United Nations Security Council; age‐period‐cohort; deaths; incidence; multiple myeloma; secular trends.

FIGURE 1

The trends in country‐specific age‐standardised incidence and age‐standardised death rates of multiple myeloma from 1990 to 2021 for both sexes (A, B), females (C, D) and males (E, F).

FIGURE 2

Joinpoint regression analysis of age‐standardised incidence rates (both sex (A), female (C) and male (E)), and age‐standardised death rates (both sex (B), female (D) and male (F)) for multiple myeloma in the five countries from 1990 to 2021. *With significance, p < 0.05.

FIGURE 3

Age‐period‐specific incidence rates of multiple myeloma in the total populations of China (A), England (B), France (C), Russian Federation (D) and the United States of America (E).

FIGURE 4

Age‐period‐specific death rates for multiple myeloma in the total populations of China (A), England (B), France (C), Russian Federation (D) and the United States of America (E).

FIGURE 5

Relative risk of incidence (A) and deaths (B) of multiple myeloma due to age, period and cohort effects in the permanent members of the five countries from 1992 to 2021.

FIGURE 6

Trends and projections of ASIR and ASDR for multiple myeloma in the five countries for the period 1990–2036. The yellow region in the figures shows the upper and lower limits of the 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UI). ASIR, age‐standardised incidence rates; ASDR, age‐standardised death rates.