[Analysis of the trend and spatial aggregation of cervical cancer mortality in Shandong Province, 1970-2021]

Abstract

Objective: To explore the spatial clustering of the mortality rate of cervical cancer in different counties (cities, districts) in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021 and its 50-year changing trend, so as to provide basis for the implementation and evaluation of prevention and control strategies and programs such as cervical cancer screening, early diagnosis and treatment, human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination, etc. Methods: The mortality data of cervical cancer were obtained from the death registration system of Shandong Province and the data of three retrospective surveys of death causes. The mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate (using the population composition of China in 1964) are used to describe the changing trend of cervical cancer in different years. The contribution values of population factors and non-population factors in cervical cancer mortality change are calculated by mortality differential decomposition method. ArcGIS 10.8 software is used for spatial distribution and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Results: From 1970 to 2021, the crude mortality rate and age standardized mortality rate of cervical cancer in Shandong Province showed a trend of first rapid decline and then slow increase. The crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of female cervical cancer in Shandong Province in 1970-1974 were the highest, reaching 17.22/10⁵ and 13.17/10⁵, respectively. In 2004-2005, it dropped to the lowest levels of 1.50/10⁵ and 0.83/10⁵. Subsequently, it slowly rose to 4.12/10⁵ and 1.56/10⁵ in 2020-2021. The differential analysis of cervical cancer mortality in different years found that the change of cervical cancer mortality was caused by the combined action of population factors and non-population factors. Among them, demographic factors (aging population) led to the increase of cervical cancer mortality, but non-demographic factors (early diagnosis and treatment, HPV infection level, medical technology level, etc) lead to the decrease of cervical cancer mortality. Compared with 1970-1974, with the passage of time, the absolute values of the contribution values of population factors and non-population factors showed an increasing trend, while the contribution of non-population factors was greater than that of population factors, which led to the decline of cervical cancer mortality. From the perspective of spatial distribution, there were great regional differences in the mortality rate of cervical cancer in different counties of Shandong Province. In 2020-2021, the mortality rate of cervical cancer in all counties decreased to a great extent compared with that in 1970-1974, and the high-high and low-low concentration areas of cervical cancer mortality in different years changed obviously. The high-aggregation areas of the cervical cancer mortality rate in Shandong Province from 2020 to 2021 were mainly distributed in some counties and districts of Linyi City, Zaozhuang City, and Heze City in the southwest. Conclusions: There are significant temporal and spatial changes in the mortality rate of cervical cancer in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021. According to these trends and their geographical and spatial clustering, prevention and control strategies of cervical cancer in different regions should be further formulated and evaluated.