The economic consequences of a childless world

Abstract

As global fertility has more than halved in the last 60 years and continues to decline, countries caught in the low fertility trap will struggle to achieve sustainable gross domestic product growth and face rising pension and health costs. Emerging economies, although not impacted yet, might encounter an even bigger crisis in a few decades. How inflation and real estate valuation will react to worsening demographic conditions is subject to debate. Finally, the demographic winter will upset economies around the world in many indirect ways, ranging from political, geopolitical, societal, and others.

Keywords: Growth; demography; secular stagnation.