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. 2025 Jun 6:13:1568049.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1568049. eCollection 2025.

Impact of meteorological factors on transmission of respiratory viruses across all age groups in the hot arid climate in Qatar

May Husein  1   2 , Salma Younes  3 , Muthanna Samara  4 , M Rami Alfarra  5 , Abdullatif Al Khal  6 , Muna Al Maslamani  6 , Gheyath K Nasrallah  7 , Einas Al Kuwari  1 , Ali Al-Kinani  2 , Peter V Coyle  1   8 , Nader Al-Dewik  3   9   10
Affiliations

Impact of meteorological factors on transmission of respiratory viruses across all age groups in the hot arid climate in Qatar

May Husein et al. Front Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: The association between meteorological parameters and viral transmission in temperate and subtropical arid climates is not fully understood. The climate in Qatar reaches extremes of heat and humidity but retains a similar pattern of transmission of respiratory viruses as in temperate climates.

Gap statement: The need for a better understanding of the demographic and meteorological factors that drive the transmission of respiratory viruses in the community.

Aim: To evaluate the relationship between meteorological and demographic factors on the transmission of 18 respiratory viruses in the State of Qatar.

Materials and methods: In total, 355,948 nasopharyngeal swabs were tested for respiratory viruses from 31-Dec-2018 to 29-Dec-2019. The study involved 18 viruses, of which only 8 viruses were included in the analysis: ADV, hBoV, Flu-A, Flu-B, hPIV3, hMPV, HRV, and RSV. Respiratory virus prevalence was compared with local meteorological data including outdoor air temperature; dew point; wind speed; atmospheric pressure; relative humidity; solar radiation, and demographic factors, including age, gender, and nationality.

Results: Transmission waves were seen for ADV, hBoV, Flu-A, Flu-B, hMPV, HRV and RSV but not with hPIV-3. Wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity, and solar radiation were significantly associated with Flu-A, Flu-B, hMPV, and RSV, which showed clear seasonality, but not with HRV, hBoV, and ADV, which had atypical seasonality and hPIV-3, which had no seasonality. Incidental associations could not be excluded and would need to be confirmed through multiple seasons. School age was the most significant demographic.

Conclusion: Young children, rather than meteorological factors, served as the primary determinant of viral transmission. The proximity of 3 large viral waves to school reopening after the summer break suggested school transmission is an important contributor. The significant association of meteorological factors with viral transmission increased the risk further, reflecting the period of the year of maximum transmission. This was seen with as viruses with a clear seasonality but not with viruses with atypical or absent seasonality.

Keywords: age; epidemiology; gender; hot and climate; meteorological factors; respiratory viruses.

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Conflict of interest statement

MH, SY, AK, EK, AA-k, PC, and NA-D were employed by Hamad Medical Corporation. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The transmission pattern of common viruses (ADV, hBoV, hMPV, Flu A, Flu B, hPIV3, HRV, and RSV) during 2019.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Heatmap of multivariate logistic regression analysis of virus-meteorological and virus-demographic associations. Numbers within the figure represent p values.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Radar chart presents the impact of dew point, relative humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and solar radiation on the main (A) enveloped and (B) non-enveloped viruses (student T-test).
Figure 4
Figure 4
The forest plots display only the factors with significant p-values, along with their corresponding odds ratios. Logistic regression models were calculated for each of the meteorological, and demographic factors, adjusting for other meteorological factors. (A) Forest plot for ADV association with meteorological and demographic factors. (B) Forest plot for hBoV association with demographic factors. (C) Forest plot for hPIV3 association with meteorological and demographic factors. (D) Forest plot for HRV association with demographic factors. (E) Forest plot for hMPV association with meteorological and demographic factors. (F) Forest plot for Flu A association with meteorological and demographic factors. (G) Forest plot for Flu B association with meteorological and demographic factors. (H) Forest plot for RSV association with meteorological and demographic factors. OR, odds ratio; CI 95%, confidence interval. Windspeed >=6, RH>=50.38, solar radiation>=291, relative humidity >=41.1 and warm temperature (22.4–27°C) have been used as reference. Young age band (19–30), male gender and Qatari nationality are reference.
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