How online public opinion evolves before and after policy adjustments in response to major public health emergencies

Abstract

Background: In recent years, incidents of public opinion triggered by major public health emergencies have emerged endlessly. Existing studies have focused on public attitudes during the early stages of containment measures but lacked research on how public opinion evolves after those measures are relaxed. In late 2022, however, China optimized its COVID-19 control measures, providing a unique window for this study.

Objective: To reveal public attitudes toward the adjustment of response measures for major public health emergencies and how these attitudes evolve over time, and to provide a reference for improving related policies and managing public opinion.

Methods: We collected Baidu Index and Weibo post data related to "epidemic prevention and control" between October 11, 2022 and March 15, 2023. Guided by the "Public Opinion Life Cycle Theory," we analyzed the evolution of public opinion intensity using the Baidu Index. We applied the SKEP model for sentiment analysis on Weibo posts, exploring changes in public sentiment and differences among groups. Additionally, we used the LDA model for topic mining on Weibo posts, examining the evolution of discussion topics and their underlying causes.

Results: During the early stages of adjustments to prevention and control measures, public opinion surged but quickly subsided to a level significantly lower than before, following the announcement of more targeted measures. In the long term, the public generally holds a positive attitude toward these adjustments, though negative sentiment may emerge in the short term. Prior to the adjustments, discussions focused on community prevention and control. In the early phase, debates were intense, with expectations for a return to normal life and economic recovery alongside concerns about health risks and medical resources. After a prolonged adjustment period, discussions on economic and daily-life topics increased, but concerns about medication and reinfection risks remained high.

Conclusion: To guide the healthy development of public opinion, policymakers should clearly explain the rationale for policy adjustments, promptly address public concerns, and encourage enterprises and opinion leaders to share positive information; additionally, they should ensure sufficient medical resources are secured before implementing policy changes and roll them out in a well-organized, step-by-step manner.

Keywords: LDA model; epidemic prevention and control policies; evolution of public opinion; major public health emergencies; sentiment analysis.

Figure 1

Overall research framework.

Figure 2

Evolution of public opinion intensity over time.

Figure 3

Difference in public opinion intensity between weekends and weekdays at various stages of public opinion.

Figure 4

The evolution of public opinion sentiment over time.

Figure 5

The differences in public opinion sentiment between domestic and overseas audiences in China at various stages of public opinion.

Figure 6

The differences in public opinion sentiment among different groups at various stages of public opinion.

Figure 7

The differences in public opinion sentiment between men and women at various stages of public opinion.

Figure 8

Perplexity and coherence curves.

Figure 9

Topic evolution path.