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. 2025 Jun 19;13(6):515.
doi: 10.3390/toxics13060515.

Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Methods Reveal Heavy Metal-Induced Health Risks in Guizhou, China

Qinju Li  1 , Dashuan Li  1 , Zelan Wang  1 , Dali Sun  1 , Ting Zhang  1 , Qinghai Zhang  1
Affiliations

Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Methods Reveal Heavy Metal-Induced Health Risks in Guizhou, China

Qinju Li et al. Toxics. .

Abstract

Due to high geological background and intensive mining activities, soils are prone to heavy metals (HMs) accumulation and ecological fragility in Guizhou Province, China. A total of 740 topsoil samples were therefore collected, and aimed to determine the concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Hg, and Pb, estimate the ecological pollution, and evaluate the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risks to humans. Results showed As (1.08%) and Cd (24.46%) in soil exceeded standards. The Igeo showed that Cr (1.49%) and Hg (31.62%) in soil were at light pollution levels; single factor pollution index (PI) showed that Cd (21.35%) in soil was mildly polluted; risk index (RI) as at a low risk level. Notably, both deterministic and Monte Carlo analyses revealed unacceptable carcinogenic risks for As and Cr in children, with traditional methods potentially underestimating As risks. Moreover, Target-Organ Toxicity Dose (TTD) revealed soil HMs as a higher risk to hematological health, with notable health risks posed by Pb in children. It is noted that spatial distribution analysis suggested that the southwestern region of Guizhou Province should be prioritized for health risk management and control. By integrating the uniqueness of geological environments, multi-dimensional health risk assessments, and spatial distributions, the present study provides a scientific basis for assessing HMs pollution risks and soil health risks in the karst regions.

Keywords: agricultural soil; health risk assessments; heavy metals; target organ toxic dose method.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Location of the study area and distribution of sampling sites.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Spatial distribution of heavy metal pollution characteristics. (a) As; (b) Cd; (c) Cr; (d) Hg; (e) Pb; (f) pH.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Assessment of the (a) Igeo and (b) PI.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Assessment of (a) Er and spatial distribution of (b) RI.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Spatial distribution of total carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks in (a,b) adults and (c,d) children.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Probabilistic non-carcinogenic risk assessment of heavy metals in (a–f) adults and (g–l) children.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Probabilistic carcinogenic risk assessment of heavy metals in (a–e) adults and (f–j) children.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Non-carcinogenic risk of (a–e) different target organs and (f,g) different populations based on TTD.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Spatial distribution of total non-carcinogenic risks of different target organs in adults (a) and children (b).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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