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. 2025 Jun 11:13:1599602.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1599602. eCollection 2025.

Global, regional and national burden of depressive disorders in adolescents and young adults, 1990-2021: systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021

Le Zhao  1 , Yan Lou  1 , Yuexian Tao  1 , Hangsai Wang  2 , Nan Xu  3
Affiliations

Global, regional and national burden of depressive disorders in adolescents and young adults, 1990-2021: systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021

Le Zhao et al. Front Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: To promote evidence-based policymaking, this research attempts to investigate global trends in depressive disorders among individuals aged 15-39 from 1990 to 2021, determine risk factors, and forecast the next trends from 2022 to 2050.

Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database were analyzed to look at the global, national, and regional burden of depressive disorders among individuals aged 15-39 from 1990 to 2021. Incidence rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and contributions of various risk factors to DALYs were also examined in this research. All incidence and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates were calculated per 100,000 population and are presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). The burden of disease through 2050 was projected using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling.

Results: Globally, the incidence in 2021 was estimated at 158,696,139.89 cases (95% UI, 129,182,271.23-197,238,491.78), with associated DALYs totaling 25,093,054.94 (95% UI, 16,739,757.06-35,139,293.90). Between 1990 and 2021, the incidence rose by 62.91% (95% UI, 57.91-68.12%), while DALYs increased by 60.46% (95% UI, 55.99-64.91%). The highest estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for both incidence [2.63%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.45-2.82%] and DALYs (2.72%; 95% CI, 2.57-2.88%) were identified in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions. Western Europe had the most cases (9,939,816.39; 95% UI, 8,081,380.82-12,409,843.00) among the 21 geographic regions examined in 2021. Globally, India exhibited the most significant burden in 2021, with incident cases reaching 32,241,303.32 (95% UI, 26,251,449.50-39,943,511.76). Furthermore, the largest burden of DALYs was observed in India, amounting to 5,034,818.12 (95% UI, 3,363,390.70-7,076,632.70). The global burden was primarily attributed to several significant risk factors, including exposure to behavioral risks, experiences of bullying victimization, incidents of childhood sexual abuse, experiences of childhood sexual abuse and bullying, as well as intimate partner violence. Projections extending to 2050 indicate an ongoing upward trend in the incidence rate within this demographic group during this period.

Conclusion: Overall, the burden of depressive disorders in this population has shown a marked increase, especially in low-SDI regions. A comprehensive understanding of the epidemiology of depressive disorders among adolescents and young adults is essential to enhance disease prevention and control efforts.

Keywords: depressive disorders; disability-adjusted life years; global burden of disease; incidence; risk factors.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Annual percent change (APC) and trends in global incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. (A) Incidence rate. (B) DALYs rate.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Incidence of depressive disorders among adolescents and young adults in 204 countries and regions. (A) Incident cases. (B) Incidence rate. (C) Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in incidence.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Trends in incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of depressive disorders among adolescents and young adults by age and sex, 1990–2021. (A) Incidence case and rate by age. (B) DALYs case and rate by age. (C) Incidence case and DALYs case by sex.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Age-specific percentages of depressive disorders among adolescents and young adults in 2021. (A) Incidence. (B) DALYs.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Epidemiological trends of incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of adolescents and young adults in five sociodemographic index (SDI) regions from 1990 to 2021. (A) Incidence case and rate. (B) DALYs case and rate.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Association between incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates and regional Sociodemographic Index (SDI), 1990–2021. (A) Incidence rate. (B) DALYs rate.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Proportion of depressive disorders among DALYs risk factors for adolescents and young adults in 2021. (A) Proportion of global and SDI. (B) Proportion of different age groups.
Figure 8
Figure 8
The prediction of depressive disorders for adolescents and young adults in incident rate from 2022 to 2050.
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