A supervised machine learning approach for predicting the need for postsurgical intervention in acromegaly

Abstract

Objective: Patients with growth hormone (GH)-secreting pituitary adenomas (PAs) experience various symptoms and comorbidities, which can ultimately lead to increased mortality. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model for predicting long-term outcomes in patients with GH-secreting PAs following endonasal transsphenoidal surgery (ETS).

Methods: The authors conducted a retrospective three-institution cohort study that included patients with GH-secreting PAs treated with ETS between 2013 and 2023. Clinical, radiological, and biochemical data were collected. The main outcome of interest was the intervention-free rate (IFR) after primary ETS. Supervised ML algorithms, including decision trees and random forests, were developed to predict the IFR. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) values.

Results: The median follow-up for 100 patients with GH-secreting PAs (53% female) was 64 months (range 1-130 months). Additional intervention for persistent or recurrent acromegaly was required in 32% of patients. Following primary ETS alone, the 3-year IFR was 70% and the 5-year IFR was 67%. Multiple ML models were developed and evaluated using AUROCs. The decision tree analysis achieved an accuracy of 81% and emphasized the importance of both gross-total resection (GTR) and patient age in determining the long-term IFR. To better understand the factors that contributed to model performance, SHAP analysis was applied to the best-performing model. The SHAP dependence plots showed that key factors associated with a longer IFR included tumor size < 9 mm, GTR, patient age > 65 years, and Knosp grade 0.

Conclusions: This ML model offers a more nuanced and potentially more accurate approach to identify patients more likely to develop recurrent or persistent acromegaly following primary ETS and require additional treatment. Following external validation, this ML model could improve personalized treatment planning and follow-up strategies and enhance patient care and resource allocation in clinical practice.

Keywords: acromegaly; long-term outcomes; machine learning; outcome prediction; pituitary adenomas.