Systemic antiviral consumption in Kazakhstan

Abstract

There is a lack of studies from low- and middle-income countries on systemic antiviral consumption (SAC). This study aims to fill this gap by providing a comprehensive analysis of nationwide antiviral consumption trends in Kazakhstan over a period of 7 years. The defined daily doses per 1000 inhabitants per day approach was utilized. Time series analyses were applied to analyze historical trends in SAC, evaluate the impact of the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic, and make future projections until 2030. The total SAC increased over the study period, with an annual growth rate of 10.24%. Overall, the antivirals that exhibited the most substantial increases in consumption after 2020 were anti-herpes, anti-HBV/HCV, and anti-influenza agents. Predictive modeling indicated that future expenditures on antivirals will remain stable in the hospital sector, both in absolute terms and per million population (pmp) rates, but are likely to increase in the community sector, both in absolute terms and pmp rates. The study's findings have important implications for public health policy and resource allocation.

Keywords: Antimicrobial stewardship; Antiviral agents; Consumption; Kazakhstan; Time series.

Fig. 1

Antiviral consumption expressed in defined daily doses per 1,000 inhabitants per day, disaggregated by quarter from 2017 to 2023. The black vertical line indicates the intervention point, marking the first wave of COVID-19 in the third quarter of 2020.

Fig. 2

The observed and projected consumption rates of major pharmacological groups of antivirals in Kazakhstan—nucleosides and nucleotides excluding reverse transcriptase inhibitors (A), nucleoside and nucleotide reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (B), non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (C), and other antivirals (D)—until 2030.

Fig. 3

Prevalence rate of the commonest types of viral infections in Kazakhstan, 2017–2023.

Fig. 4

The observed and projected expenditure rates of antivirals in the hospital sector presented both in absolute numbers (A) and per million population rates (B), as well as in the community sector in absolute numbers (C) and per million population rates (D), expressed in United States dollars.