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. 2025 Jul 2;15(1):22792.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-05354-w.

The effects of PM2.5 concentrations on traffic violations and accident severity in Guangdong China

Ling Fan  1 , Mingqin Chen  2
Affiliations

The effects of PM2.5 concentrations on traffic violations and accident severity in Guangdong China

Ling Fan et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

How does air pollution affect road safety? This study examines the impact of local PM2.5 concentrations on traffic violations and accident severity in Guangdong Province, China, from 2006 to 2014. Using instrumental variable methods to address endogeneity, we find a significant relationship between PM2.5 concentrations and the occurrence of high-penalty traffic violations and severe accidents. Robustness checks confirm these results hold when using alternative pollutants (PM10, SO2, and SO4). To account for the bias caused by nonlinear relationships between air pollution and weather, we employ a random forest model to isolate the weather-independent component of PM2.5 concentrations. Further analysis reveals significant heterogeneity in these effects across driver characteristics and geographic areas. This paper also explores potential visual and psychological mechanisms through which PM2.5 influences traffic safety. Our findings offer valuable policy implications for environmental and traffic management strategies.

Keywords: Air pollution; Instrumental variable; Machine learning; Road traffic accidents.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Distribution of PM2.5 Concentration, Traffic Violations and Severity in Guangdong Province. The figure was created using the software QGIS Desktop, version 3.40.2.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
The Trend of PM2.5, Point and Severity. The figure was created using the software Stata, version 18.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Correlation Heatmap of Variables. The figure was created using the software Stata, version 18.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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