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. 2025 Jul 1;17(1):35.
doi: 10.1186/s11689-025-09627-3.

Pathways to autism diagnosis in adulthood

Affiliations

Pathways to autism diagnosis in adulthood

Isabelle Dufour et al. J Neurodev Disord. .

Abstract

Background: This study explored Trajectories of Diagnoses (TDs) preceding a first diagnosis of autism in adulthood.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study used health administrative data from Quebec, Canada, and included all adults with a first recorded diagnosis of autism between 2012 and 2017. A TDs was defined as a succession of medical records of psychiatric and/or neurodevelopmental conditions over time. These TDs were retrospectively analyzed from 2002 to 2017, using a state sequence analysis of diagnoses, in order: Autism, Intellectual or developmental disabilities (IDDs), Schizophrenia spectrum disorder (SSD), Bipolar Disorder (BD), Depressive Disorder (DD), Anxiety Disorder (AD), Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and Other psychiatric and/or neurodevelopmental conditions.

Results: The cohort included 2799 adults with a first recorded diagnosis of autism between 2012 and 2017. Several psychiatric and/or neurodevelopmental conditions were recorded since 2002, including AD (77.5%), DD (58.0%), SSD (49.4%), BD (48.3%), and IDDs (33.2%). Results revealed 5 distinct types of TDs. Types 1 (63.8%), 2 (17.6%) and 3 (6%) represented individuals in younger age groups with similar characteristics but with very different sequences of diagnoses, characterized by mixed diagnoses in type 1, SSD and AD in Type 2, and IDDs, DD, AD, and ADHD in type 3. Types 4 and 5 (9.0% and 3.6%), representing middle-aged/older groups, displayed distinctive TDs associated with high healthcare use, almost entirely associated with SSD (Type 4) and BD (Type 5).

Conclusion: This study proposes a complementary examination of the multiple pathways to diagnosis experienced by adults, highlighting the need to address differential diagnosis and co-occurring psychiatric and neurodevelopmental conditions.

Keywords: Autism spectrum disorder; Healthcare use; Mental healthcare; Neurodevelopmental disorder; Psychiatric disorder; State sequence analysis.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: This study was approved by the Research Ethics Board Committee of the Université de Sherbrooke and by the Commission d'accès à l'information of Quebec. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Study cohort flow diagram. *The study cohort consists of patients diagnosed with ASD in adulthood (n = 2799), representing 28% of all patients diagnosed with ASD (n = 9882) between January 2012 and December 2017
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
a State Distribution Plots and b Sequence Index Plot of the typology of Trajectories of Diagnoses (TDs). State Distribution Plots show the distribution of states (proportion) for each trimester of follow-up (69 semesters between 2002 and 2017) while the Sequence Index Plots show the individual’s sequence of registered diagnoses
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Mean number of days spent in each state by types of Trajectories of Diagnoses (TDs) during the 16-year follow-up period

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