The Evolving Global Burden of Young-Onset Parkinson's Disease (1990-2021): Regional, Gender, and Age Disparities in the Context of Rising Incidence and Declining Mortality

Abstract

Background: Young-onset Parkinson's disease (YOPD) has emerged as a significant global public health challenge characterized by its early onset among individuals in their prime working years, complex disruptions to social roles, and a substantial socioeconomic burden encompassing diminished productivity, escalating healthcare costs, and markedly reduced quality of life.

Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, this study analyzed YOPD burden (ages 20-49) from 1990 to 2021, assessing age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR), and trends via Bayesian Age-Period Cohort (BAPC) modeling.

Results: Over the past three decades, the ASIR (estimated annual percentage change [EAPC] = 1.40%) and ASDR (EAPC = 0.14%) have significantly increased globally in YOPD, whereas the ASMR (EAPC = -0.42%) has declined. The sociodemographic index (SDI) exhibits an inverted U-shaped correlation with the burden of disease, with the middle SDI region representing the core burden zone globally. The rising trend in burden of disease is most pronounced in the middle SDI, and the high-middle SDI has the most significant upward trend in disease burden. Notably, East, South, and Southeast Asia accounted for more than 60% of global cases and deaths, led by China and India. Additionally, the burden of YOPD increases with age, with the number of new YOPD cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) being 48%, 92%, and 73% higher in men than in women, respectively. By 2050, the ASIR is projected to rise by 12.39%, whereas the ASMR and ASDR may drop by 23.75% and by 22.05%, reflecting a "rising incidence paired with declining mortality and projected reductions in disability burden" trend.

Conclusion: YOPD disproportionately impacts working-age populations, with geographic, gender, and age disparities. This analysis establishes YOPD as a priority condition for global neurological health initiatives, particularly in middle SDI regions and Asia, requiring differentiated regional approaches to mitigate its growing impact on working-age populations.

Keywords: age‐standardized rate; estimated annual percentage change; global burden of disease; socio‐demographic index; young‐onset Parkinson's disease.

FIGURE 1

Epidemiological trends in age‐standardized rates of (A) incidence, (B) mortality, and (C) DALYs for young‐onset Parkinson's disease across 5 SDI regions, 1990–2021. SDI, sociodemographic index.

FIGURE 2

Age‐standardized rates of (A) incidence, (B) mortality, and (C) DALYs of young‐onset Parkinson's disease across 21 GBD regions by SDI, 1990–2021. DALYs, disability‐adjusted life‐years.

FIGURE 3

Age‐standardized rates of (A) incidence, (B) mortality, and (C) DALYs of young‐onset Parkinson's disease in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990–2021.

FIGURE 4

Age‐standardized rates of (A) incidence, (B) mortality, and (C) DALYs of young‐onset Parkinson's disease in 2021, by sex and region.

FIGURE 5

The projected temporal trends in the global burden of age‐standardized rates of (A) incidence, (B) mortality, and (C) DALYs for young‐onset Parkinson's disease, 2021–2050. The black line shows the global level. Shading indicates the upper and lower limits of the 95% UI.

FIGURE 6

The correlation between EAPC and young‐onset Parkinson's disease indicators (incidence rate, mortality rate, DALYs) and SDI in 2021. The analysis includes: (A) correlation between EAPC and incidence rate, (B) correlation between EAPC and mortality rate, (C) correlation between EAPC and DALYs of young‐onset Parkinson's disease, and (D–F) correlations between EAPC and SDI in 2021. Each dot represents one country, and the solid blue line denotes the fitted regression trend with a 95% confidence interval. The circles represent countries with available SDI data. The size of the circle increases with the number of YOPD cases. Outliers represent countries with extreme values in either incidence or SDI, which may influence the regression analysis. These outliers should be considered with caution in further interpretation of the results. EAPC, estimated annual percentage change.