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. 2025 Jun 20:12:1606685.
doi: 10.3389/fmed.2025.1606685. eCollection 2025.

Development of a predictive tool for long-term prognosis in clear cell adenocarcinoma of the cervix: a large population-based real-world study

Yanhong Wang #  1   2   3 , Yi Ouyang #  4 , Yiping Chen  1 , Zhigang Bai  1 , Xinping Cao  4 , Qunrong Cai  1 , Qin Xu  2
Affiliations

Development of a predictive tool for long-term prognosis in clear cell adenocarcinoma of the cervix: a large population-based real-world study

Yanhong Wang et al. Front Med (Lausanne). .

Abstract

Background: Clear cell adenocarcinoma of the cervix (CCAC) is a rare malignancy without a well-established prognostic model. Our study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to estimate overall survival in CCAC patients.

Methods: We collected data on 630 CCAC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2000-2021). Missing clinicopathological data were imputed using the missForest package. The imputed dataset served as the training cohort, while the dataset with missing values removed acted as the validation cohort. The nomogram's performance was assessed through discriminative ability, calibration, C-index, AUC, and calibration plots. Clinical benefits were compared against the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging using decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

Results: The nomogram, based on nine variables, demonstrated strong discriminative power, with C-index values of 0.82 for the training cohort and 0.81 for the validation cohort, and AUCs exceeding 0.80 in both sets. Calibration plots showed a strong agreement between the nomogram's predictions and actual outcomes in both cohorts. The NRI values for the training set were 0.21 for 3-year, 0.20 for 5-year, and 0.30 for 10-year overall survival (OS) predictions, and for the validation set were 0.34 for 3-year, 0.25 for 5-year, and 0.31 for 10-year OS predictions. The IDI results for the training set were 0.17 across 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS predictions, and for the validation set were 0.21 for 3-year, 0.17 for 5-year, and 0.15 for 10-year OS predictions. The nomogram significantly outperformed the FIGO criteria (p < 0.01), and DCA highlighted its superior clinical utility in identifying high-risk patients.

Conclusion: The nomogram, which integrates treatment data, was successfully developed and validated to assist clinicians in assessing the prognosis of CCAC patients. It demonstrated superior performance to FIGO criteria in predicting overall survival.

Keywords: FIGO stage; OS; clear cell adenocarcinoma of the cervix; nomogram; risk stratification.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Nomogram of 3-, 5-, and 10-year overall survival for patients with clear cell adenocarcinoma of cervix (CCAC).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Kaplan–Meier overall survival curves of patients with CCAC at different FIGO criteria-based tumor stages or with different risks stratified by the nomogram. (A) CCAC patients in the training cohort at different risks stratified according to the nomogram. (B) CCAC patients in the training cohort at different stages classified according to the FIGO criteria-based tumor staging. (C) CCAC patients in the validation cohort at different risks stratified according to the nomogram. (D) CCAC patients in the validation cohort at different stages classified according to the FIGO criteria-based tumor staging. CCAC, clear cell adenocarcinoma of the cervix; FIGO, The International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.
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