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. 2025 Jul 9;19(7):e0013182.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0013182. eCollection 2025 Jul.

Benefits of public awareness in mitigating cystic echinococcosis risk in Western China: A climate and socio-economic perspective

Fang Yin  1 , Wenrui Meng  1 , Peiwei Fan  2   3 , Yue Shi  4 , Shuai Chen  2 , Yongchun Liang  5 , Jianyi Yao  4 , Yeping Wang  4 , Chuizhao Xue  6 , Shuai Han  6 , Mengmeng Hao  2   3 , Qian Wang  7   8 , Ze Meng  9 , Jun Zhuo  2   3 , Kai Sun  10 , Yongqing Bai  11 , Tingting Kang  12 , Zhenyu Wang  13 , Lei Liu  5 , Dong Jiang  2   3 , Liqun Fang  14 , Canjun Zheng  4 , Jiping Dong  2   3 , Fangyu Ding  2   3 , Tian Ma  15   16
Affiliations

Benefits of public awareness in mitigating cystic echinococcosis risk in Western China: A climate and socio-economic perspective

Fang Yin et al. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. .

Abstract

Background: The prevalence of cystic echinococcosis (CE), a widespread zoonotic disease, imposes a significant public health burden, especially in western China. However, under the background of global change, how to meet the challenge of the future risk of CE remains unclear. As global climate change, land use changes, and socio-economic factors continue to progress, the spread and intensity of CE may potentially worsen, making it crucial to assess and mitigate future risks.

Methods: By employing Bayesian additive regression trees model to develop risk models for CE in animal hosts (cattle, sheep and dogs) and humans, this study mapped the current distribution of infection risk for CE and projected future risks under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The projections considered both constant and increased rates of public awareness rates regarding CE prevention in the future.

Results: Current simulations indicate that the regions with a high risk of CE infection are primarily concentrated in Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu, and Xinjiang. Future projections suggest that heightened CE risks will be experienced in regions such as Yunnan, Gansu, and Sichuan will experience heightened CE risks. Notably, predictions suggest that increased public awareness is estimated to be linked to accompanied by a reduction of the population at risk by 2.72% to 3.35% in western China by 2030.

Conclusion: This research offers a comprehensive understanding of the future distribution of epidemic risk for CE under climate and socio-economic changes. It highlights that enhancing public awareness regions with high-risk is a critical factor associated with reduced infection rates. Furthermore, the study offers a valuable framework for assessing the risk associated with other zoonotic diseases.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Response curve for the six most important risk factors in the human CE risk model (including awareness rate).
The blue shading gives a 95% credible interval from the posterior distribution of the Bayesian model.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Spatial partial dependence plots in human CE risk model.
Variables are given in descending order of the first six places of model importance. Values are unitless partial effects on predicted probabilities that range from 0.6 to 0.8. Note: Base map data from Map World (https://map.tianditu.gov.cn/).
Fig 3
Fig 3. The current spatial distribution of predicted CE infection risk based on the modelling analysis.
(a)cattle, (b)sheep, (c)dog, (d)human CE. Note: Base map data from Map World (https://map.tianditu.gov.cn/).
Fig 4
Fig 4. Future predicted infection risk distribution and changes of human CE in western China based on the modelling analysis.
(Strategy B: Awareness Rate Increased). Note: Base map data from Map World (https://map.tianditu.gov.cn/).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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