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. 2025 Aug:202:109657.
doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2025.109657. Epub 2025 Jul 2.

Health risks related to air pollution by transport categories and vehicle types: Comparison by mortality indicators

Otto Hänninen  1 , Heli Lehtomäki  2 , Antti Korhonen  2 , Tuukka Kokkola  3 , Anni Hartikainen  3 , Olli Sippula  4 , Ulla Haverinen-Shaughnessy  5 , Pekka Leviäkangas  5 , Isabell Katharina Rumrich  2
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Free article

Health risks related to air pollution by transport categories and vehicle types: Comparison by mortality indicators

Otto Hänninen et al. Environ Int. 2025 Aug.
Free article

Abstract

Background: The transports are challenged by the need of sustainable, energy-efficient, and pollution-free services. Environmental epidemiology has confirmed substantial health impacts from traffic fine particles (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), but emerging evidence suggests additional burden due to black carbon (BC), ultrafine particles (UFP), and secondary organic aerosols (SOA). Our aim is to make an overview of the potential transport sector air pollution health risks remaining after implementing most of the current legislation by EU27 in 2030.

Methods: We extend the established emission-intake-effect framework and apply exposure efficiencies by vehicle types and use effect factors estimated from epidemiological relative risks for each pollutant to calculate attributable mortalities by vehicle types, fuels, and non-exhaust emissions.

Results: Our results suggest that in 2030, primary fine particle (pPM2.5) emissions from the transport sector may still be responsible for 10,296 (95% CI 7867-11,476) premature deaths in EU27. When compared with alternative air pollution indicators, estimates were 18,686 (9436-36,654) for nitrogen dioxide, 5037 (2446-7620) for black carbon, and 1476 (1017-1956) for secondary organic aerosols. However, largest single pollutant mortality estimate was calculated for ultrafine particles (37,582 (31,569-43,219)). Road traffic and diesel exhausts stand out as dominant sources.

Discussion: These emissions seem central for targeting effective control policies. However, toxicological evidence needs to be incorporated with the current epidemiology-based multipollutant indicators. Variable extent and consistency of epidemiological evidence on the five pollutants should be considered when interpreting these results.

Keywords: Black carbon (BC); Fine particles (PM(2.5)); Nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)); Secondary organic aerosols (SOA); Traffic air pollution (TRAP); Ultrafine particles (UFP).

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Otto Hanninen reports financial support was provided by EU Horizon 2020. Otto Hanninen reports financial support was provided by Research Council of Finland. Reports a relationship with that includes:. Has patent pending to. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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