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. 2025 Jun 25:16:1551530.
doi: 10.3389/fendo.2025.1551530. eCollection 2025.

Analysis of factors influencing clinical pregnancy rates in frozen-thawed embryo transfer cycles

Junqiang Wang  1 , Zexing Yang  2 , Ying Chen  1   3 , Fengchen Gao  1 , Wenxiu Zhao  1 , Shuxuan Cao  1 , Yixi Li  1 , Limei He  1   3
Affiliations

Analysis of factors influencing clinical pregnancy rates in frozen-thawed embryo transfer cycles

Junqiang Wang et al. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). .

Abstract

Objective: To identify the determinants influencing clinical pregnancy outcomes in frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET) cycles.

Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients who underwent FET at the Department of Reproductive Genetics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, between January 2018 and December 2023. A total of 7,302 FET cycles were included and categorized into two groups based on clinical pregnancy outcomes: the clinical pregnancy group (n = 3,365) and the non-clinical pregnancy group (n = 3,937). Baseline characteristics were compared between groups. A random forest algorithm was applied to rank the importance of variables, followed by dimensionality reduction using a sliding window sequential forward selection (SWSFS) method. The top-ranked predictors with the lowest average out-of-bag (OOB) error rates were incorporated into a multivariate logistic regression model to determine independent predictors of clinical pregnancy in FET cycles.

Results: The overall clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) was 46.08%. The CPR was significantly higher in blastocyst transfers (61.14%) compared to cleavage-stage embryo transfers (34.13%) (χ² = 528.973, P < 0.01). The random forest model identified seven variables with the highest predictive value: female age, number of high-quality blastocysts, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) level, embryo stage at transfer, endometrial thickness on the day of transfer, number of high-quality cleavage-stage embryos, and pre-transfer endometrial thickness. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that younger female age (OR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.92-0.94), greater number of high-quality blastocysts (OR: 1.67; 95% CI: 1.49-1.88), higher AMH levels (OR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05), blastocyst transfer (OR: 2.31; 95% CI: 1.85-2.88), increased endometrial thickness on transfer day (OR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05-1.15), more high-quality cleavage-stage embryos (OR: 1.74; 95% CI: 1.59-1.92), and greater pre-transfer endometrial thickness (OR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.00-1.09) were all independently associated with higher clinical pregnancy rates.

Conclusion: Female age, number of high-quality blastocysts, AMH levels, embryo stage at transfer, endometrial thickness on the day of transfer, number of high-quality cleavage-stage embryos, and pre-transfer endometrial thickness are significant predictors of clinical pregnancy outcomes in FET cycles. These findings may guide individualized embryo transfer strategies to optimize reproductive success.

Keywords: assisted reproductive technology; clinical pregnancy; female age; frozen-thawed embryo transfer; influencing factors.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Ranking of importance of factors influencing clinical pregnancy outcome.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Results of SWSFS analysis.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Forest plot of effects of factors influencing clinical pregnancy.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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