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. 2025 Jul 10;25(1):68.
doi: 10.1186/s12862-025-02408-5.

Future habitat dynamics of critically endangered endemic plants in the St. Catherine protected area, South Sinai, Egypt: climate change perspectives on mountain ecosystems

K Omar  1   2 , A Mohamed  3 , M Shaltout  3 , I Elgamal  4 , L M Bidak  3
Affiliations

Future habitat dynamics of critically endangered endemic plants in the St. Catherine protected area, South Sinai, Egypt: climate change perspectives on mountain ecosystems

K Omar et al. BMC Ecol Evol. .

Abstract

Background: Mountain ecosystems provide crucial insights into species distribution, yet their fragility, especially in the warming Mediterranean, puts many species at high extinction risk. This study, focusing on four critically endangered plants in Egypt's St. Catherine Protected Area (Primula boveana, Rosa arabica, Micromeria serbaliana, and Silene oreosinaica), uses Species Distribution Models (MaxEnt) and the IUCN Red List to assess climate change impacts and enhance future conservation strategies.

Results: Field observations from 2024 to 2025 revealed changes in Extent of Occurrence (EOO) and Area of Occupancy (AOO) when compared to historical records. EOO increased for all species: P. boveana (72.8 km², + 280%), R. arabica (102 km², + 117%), M. serbaliana (88.5 km², + 30%), and S. oreosinaica (61 km², + 15%) as discovery of new and rehabilitated sites. This reclassified R. arabica from Critically Endangered (CR) to Endangered (EN), although the other species remain CR. Despite these geographical increases, both human and natural threats continue to cause declines in individual numbers and habitat quality. High predictive model accuracy was recorded (AUC ≥ 0.97, TSS ≥ 0.85). Under current conditions, P. boveana and R. arabica exhibit wider potential distributions (11.3% and 12.1% of the total area, respectively) than M. serbaliana (5.2%) and S. oreosinaica (5.4%). Areas with high probability of occurrence are primarily found in the northwestern mountains, often fragmented by topography. MaxEnt projected a decline in suitable habitats for these species, with new suitable areas emerging in SCPA's southern mountains. Future habitat reduction rates for the years 2050 and 2070 varied: S. oreosinaica (2-23%), P. boveana (7-32%), and M. serbaliana (2-41%), while R. arabica demonstrated high stability (> 96%).

Conclusions: Our findings show an altitudinal shift, with species moving to higher, southern mountains, experiencing habitat fragmentation and losses elsewhere. Effective conservation needs ongoing monitoring, in-situ/ex-situ efforts, and addressing threats like overgrazing. Raising environmental awareness is crucial.

Keywords: Conservation monitoring; Habitat suitability; IUCN red list; Maxent; Prioritization; Restricted range species; Spatial changes; Species distribution modeling.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Ethic approval and consent to participate: All methods used in this study followed the relevant institutional, national, and international guidelines and legislation, and no animal or plant parts were collected. Consent for publication: All authors participated in, read and approved the final version of the article before publication. Prior to publication, written informed consent was secured from all authors whose personal identifying images appear in this study. They were fully informed of how their images would be used and disseminated in this publication. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Target species historical distribution within St. Catherine protected area: a Primula boveana Decne ex Duby; b Rosa arabica Crép; c Micromeria serbaliana Danin & Hedge; d Silene oreosinaica Chowdhuri
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Updated geographical distribution of target species within SCPA (survey 2025)
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Population size trend and fluctuation in ten years for P. boveana
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Population size trend and fluctuation for P. boveana and R. arabica
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Recorded sub-populations of target species inside St. Catherine Protected Area
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Target species distribution pattern among different microhabitat, and aspect (N: North, NE: Northeastern, E: East, SE: Southeastern, S: South, SW: Southwestern, W: West, and NW: Northeastern)
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Map of the current potential habitat for target species; A = Probability, and b = Suitability
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
The Projection of the potential distribution changes maps of target species under future climate change scenarios. From top to down; P. boveana, R. arabica, M. serbaliana and S. oreosinaica
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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