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. 2025 Jun 24;17(13):2114.
doi: 10.3390/cancers17132114.

Quantifying Genetic and Environmental Factors Accounting for Multistage Progression of Precancerous Lesions and Oral Cancer: Applications to Risk-Guided Prevention

Donlagon Jumparway  1 , Chiu-Wen Su  2 , Amy Ming-Fang Yen  3 , Yen-Tze Liu  4   5   6 , Mu-Kuan Chen  7 , Ko-Jiunn Liu  8   9   10 , Pongdech Sarakarn  11 , Sam Li-Sheng Chen  3
Affiliations

Quantifying Genetic and Environmental Factors Accounting for Multistage Progression of Precancerous Lesions and Oral Cancer: Applications to Risk-Guided Prevention

Donlagon Jumparway et al. Cancers (Basel). .

Abstract

Background: Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is a multifactorial and multistage disease influenced by both genetic susceptibility and environmental risk factors. However, conventional oral cancer preventions are often based on environmental exposures but do not allow for genetic susceptibility and both factors contributing to multistage progressions. This study developed a comprehensive multistate risk model combining both types of factors.

Methods: Using data from literature, the researchers built a multistate progression model and calculated transition risks to simulate outcomes in a high-risk population, similar to those eligible for oral cancer screening in Taiwan.

Results: The findings showed that OSCC risk varied dramatically across the population, ranging from 362 to over 24,000 cases per 100,000, depending on risk level. The integration of genetic and environmental risk factors into a multistate disease model allows for more accurate risk stratifications of precancerous and invasive OSCC. Frequent screening is more effective, notably in high-risk individuals. Incorporating a health education program provided an additional 2 to 6% reduction in incidence, particularly benefiting higher-risk groups. Simulation findings indicate that tailored screening strategies, particularly when combined with health education interventions, can significantly improve the effectiveness of oral cancer prevention.

Conclusions: Quantifying the effects of genetic susceptibility and environmental factors on multistate natural history of precancerous lesions and oral cancer provides a valuable framework for developing the risk-guided policies for oral cancer prevention.

Keywords: Markov simulation; genetic susceptibility; multistate risk assessment model; oral cancer; screening.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Betel quid, cigarette smoking, and genetic and molecular alterations in oral cancer progression.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Assessing the impact of screening and health education on oral cancer progression by Markov simulation model.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Effectiveness for reducing oral cancer incidence for screening strategies with different screen-intervals compared to no screening.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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