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. 2025 Jun 27;14(13):1966.
doi: 10.3390/plants14131966.

Predictive Framework Based on GBIF and WorldClim Data for Identifying Drought- and Cold-Tolerant Magnolia Species in China

Minxin Gou  1 , Jie Xu  2 , Haoxiang Zhu  1 , Qianwen Liao  1 , Haiyang Wang  1 , Xinyao Zhou  3 , Qiongshuang Guo  4
Affiliations

Predictive Framework Based on GBIF and WorldClim Data for Identifying Drought- and Cold-Tolerant Magnolia Species in China

Minxin Gou et al. Plants (Basel). .

Abstract

This study developed a preliminary screening framework for identifying candidate Magnolia species potentially resistant to drought and cold conditions, using open access plant specimens and climate data. Based on 969 specimens, a distribution database was constructed to map 35 Magnolia species in China. Nonparametric variance analysis revealed significant interspecific differences in precipitation of the driest quarter (PDQ) and minimum temperature of the coldest month (MTCM). Using the updated climatic thresholds, nine candidate species each were identified as having drought resistance (PDQ < 60.5 mm) and cold tolerance (MTCM < 0.925 °C). In conclusion, the proposed method integrates geocoded specimen information with climate data, providing preliminary candidate species for future physiological validation, conservation planning, and further botanical research. However, the primary focus on climate data and lack of consideration of non-climatic factors warrant cautious interpretation of the results and comprehensive investigations for validation of the present study results.

Keywords: Magnolia; climate data; cold tolerance; drought resistance; plant specimens.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Distribution of Magnolia L. in China.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The climate conditions of Magnolia. (A) The distribution of Magnolia specimens in their corresponding climate conditions. (B) The median values of the precipitation of the driest quarter (PDQ) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (MTCM) for 35 Magnolia species. The species were divided into five clusters by using the hierarchical clustering method based on square Euclidean distance.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Drought-tolerance potential of Magnolia species. Blue boxes represent candidate drought-tolerant species, and gray boxes represent nontolerant species.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Climatic niche differentiation between the tolerant and nontolerant species. (A) Precipitation of the driest quarter (PDQ) for candidate drought-tolerant vs. nontolerant species. (B) Minimum temperature of the coldest month (MTCM) for candidate cold-tolerant vs. nontolerant species. *** indicates p < 0.001 (Mann–Whitney U test).
Figure 5
Figure 5
Cold-tolerance potential of Magnolia species. Yellow boxes represent candidate cold-tolerant species, and gray boxes represent nontolerant species.
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