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. 2025 Jul 16;232(Supplement_1):S10-S18.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaf086.

Post-Pandemic Dynamics of the Global Circulation of Human Metapneumovirus and Respiratory Syncytial Virus

Marie-Noëlle Billard  1 , Joanne G Wildenbeest  1 , Ruben Kole  1 , Barry Rodgers-Gray  2 , John Fullarton  2 , Louis Bont  1   3
Affiliations

Post-Pandemic Dynamics of the Global Circulation of Human Metapneumovirus and Respiratory Syncytial Virus

Marie-Noëlle Billard et al. J Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: Understanding the seasonality of human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is important for public health planning. It can support rationale for using another country data to model immunization strategies where seasonality data are lacking. While some studies have investigated (sub)-national seasonality drivers, this is the first to describe global seasonality for RSV and hMPV.

Methods: We included 26 countries with consistent reporting and >10 detections at the peak, after searching international databases and local reports. Weekly surveillance data from January 2022 to June 2024 were included. Viral activity was defined by comparing the 4-week moving average of the positivity rate to its annual average. "Seeding" events were the first 2 consecutive weeks with a statistically significant increase in detections.

Results: Most countries showed seasonal patterns of RSV and hMPV, except for some tropical countries. The RSV peak occurred systematically before the hMPV peak. On a Mercator projection, hMPV appeared to circulate in a counterclockwise manner, opposite to RSV. Although global information was incomplete, the first seeding events occurred in a short time in multiple countries with year-to-year variations.

Conclusions: We have provided critical information on the circulation of hMPV and RSV. We only found 26 countries reporting suitable surveillance data in publicly accessible reports, which likely reflects true gaps in surveillance.

Keywords: hMPV; human metapneumovirus; respiratory syncytial virus; seasonality; transmission.

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Conflict of interest statement

Potential conflicts of interest. J. G. W. has been an investigator for clinical trials sponsored by pharmaceutical companies, including AstraZeneca, Merck, Pfizer, Sanofi, and Janssen; participated in the advisory boards of Janssen and Sanofi; and was a speaker at a Sanofi-sponsored symposium (all fees/honoraria were paid to University Medical Centre Utrecht [UMCU]). L. B. has regular interaction with pharmaceutical and other industrial partners; he has not received personal fees or other personal benefits. UMCU has received major funding (>€100 000 per industrial partner) for investigator-initiated studies from AbbVie, MedImmune, AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Janssen, Pfizer, MSD, and MeMed Diagnostics. UMCU has received major funding for the RSV GOLD study from the Gates Foundation. UMCU has received major funding as part of the Innovative Medicines Initiative-funded public-private partnership RESCEU and PROMISE projects with partners GSK, Novavax, Janssen, AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and Sanofi. UMCU has received major funding by Julius Clinical for participating in clinical studies sponsored by MedImmune and Pfizer. UMCU received minor funding (€1000–€25 000 per industrial partner) for consultation and invited lectures by AbbVie, MedImmune, Ablynx, Bavaria Nordic, MabXience, GSK, Novavax, Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, MSD, Sanofi, and Janssen. L. B. is the founding chairman of the ReSViNET Foundation. B. R.-G. and J. F.’s employer has received payment from AstraZeneca and Sanofi for work on various projects outside the scope of this study. All other authors report no potential conflicts of interest. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Flowchart of the inclusion of countries. Abbreviation: hMPV, human metapneumovirus.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Periods of increased positivity rates and timing of the peak and “seeding” event of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) from January 2022 to June 2024, in equatorial countries (EQ) and countries from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) included in the study.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Periods of increased positivity rates and timing of the peak and “seeding” event of human metapneumovirus (hMPV) from January 2022 to June 2024, in equatorial countries (EQ) and countries from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) included in the study.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Global circulation of human metapneumovirus (hMPV), -week average, October 2022 through June 2024.
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Global circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), -week average, October 2022 through June 2024.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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MeSH terms