Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2025 Jul 10;46(7):1175-1179.
doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250208-00072.

[Analysis on incidence trend of brucellosis based on age-period-cohort model in Shandong Province, 2004-2023]

[Article in Chinese]
X L Yu  1 , M Fang  1 , M W Lin  2 , L X Cheng  1 , Y Li  1 , S J Ding  1
Affiliations

[Analysis on incidence trend of brucellosis based on age-period-cohort model in Shandong Province, 2004-2023]

[Article in Chinese]
X L Yu et al. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. .

Abstract
in English, Chinese

Objective: To understand the incidence trend of brucellosis over time in Shandong Province from 2004 to 2023, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of brucellosis. Methods: The incidence data of brucellosis in Shandong from 2004 to 2023 were collected from China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The annual change percentage (APC) and annual average change percentage (AAPC) of the incidence rate were calculated by using Joinpoint regression model. A age-period-cohort model was used to analyze changes in brucellosis incidence with age, period, and birth cohort. Results: The average annual incidence of brucellosis was 1.76/100 000 in Shandong from 2004 to 2023. The Joinpoint regression analysis results showed that the reported incidence of brucellosis increased by an average of 92.0% and 18.9% each year from 2004 to 2010 and from 2010 to 2014, respectively, and decreased by an average of 0.2% each year from 2014 to 2023. The results of APC model showed that the incidence of brucellosis increased first and then decreased with age (χ2=176.92, P<0.001), and incidence of brucellosis showed slow increase and rapid increase first, then decrease (χ2=2 921.03, P<0.001) over time. The risk for brucellosis reached peak in 2016 (RR=5.29, 95%CI: 4.96-5.65) and became the lowest in 2006 (RR=0.24, 95%CI: 0.21-0.28). The incidence increased in later birth cohort (χ2=348.88, P<0.001), the AAPCs of all the age groups were between 15.0% and 40.0%, and the older the age, the greater the risk (χ2=348.77, P<0.001). Conclusions: From 2004 to 2023, the reported incidence of brucellosis in Shandong showed a significant age-period-cohort effect, which increased first and then decreased, first increased and then decreased with age, increased slowly and rapidly first, then decreased over time, and increased in later birth cohort. It is necessary to conduct targeted prevention and control, health education to reduce the risk for brucellosis.

目的： 分析2004-2023年山东省布鲁氏菌病（布病）发病趋势及发病率随年龄、时期和出生队列的变化趋势，为制定布病防控策略提供理论依据。 方法： 收集2004-2023年中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统中报告的山东省布病发病率资料，采用Joinpoint回归模型计算发病率的年变化百分比（APC）和平均年变化百分比（AAPC），采用年龄-时期-队列模型分析布病发病率随年龄、时期和出生队列效应的变化。 结果： 2004-2023年山东省布病年均报告发病率为1.76/10万，Joinpoint回归分析结果显示，布病报告发病率2004-2010年、2010-2014年平均每年上升92.0%、18.9%，2014-2023年平均每年下降0.2%。APC模型结果显示，布病发病率随年龄增长呈先上升后下降趋势（χ2=176.92，P<0.001），时期变化中发病率随时期推移呈先缓慢上升、后快速上升然后下降的趋势（χ2=2 921.03，P<0.001），发病风险在2016年达到高峰（RR=5.29，95%CI：4.96~5.65），2006年最低（RR=0.24，95%CI：0.21~0.28）；出生队列变化中发病率随出生年份推移呈上升的趋势（χ2=348.88，P<0.001），各年龄组AAPC在15.0%~40.0%之间，呈上升趋势，且年龄越大，上升幅度越大（χ2=348.77，P<0.001）。 结论： 2004-2023年山东省布病报告发病率有显著的年龄-时期-队列效应，总体呈先上升后下降趋势，随年龄增长呈先上升后下降的趋势，随时期推移呈先缓慢上升、快速上升后下降的趋势，随出生队列推移呈上升趋势，应针对性地做好防控和健康教育，降低布病发病风险。.

PubMed Disclaimer

Publication types

LinkOut - more resources