Extreme events drive rapid and dynamic range fluctuations

Lydia G Soifer¹, Julie L Lockwood², Jonas J Lembrechts³, Laura H Antão⁴, David H Klinges⁵, Rebecca A Senior⁶, Natalie C Ban⁷, Birgitta Evengard⁸, Belen Fadrique⁹, Sophie Falkeis¹⁰, Alexa L Fredston¹¹, Rob Guralnick¹², Jonathan Lenoir¹³, Montague H C Neate-Clegg¹⁴, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes¹⁵, Gretta Pecl¹⁶, Malin L Pinsky¹⁷, Jennifer E Smith¹⁸, Beth Stys¹⁹, Morgan W Tingley²⁰, Brett R Scheffers²¹

Affiliations

¹ School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. Electronic address: lysoifer@gmail.com.
² Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources, and Rutgers Climate and Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.
³ Ecology & Biodiversity, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands; Plants & Ecosystems, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
⁴ Research Centre for Ecological Change, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Biology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
⁵ Yale School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
⁶ Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, UK.
⁷ School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.
⁸ Department of Clinical Microbiology, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
⁹ School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK; School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
¹⁰ Studio Sophie Falkeis, Vienna, Austria.
¹¹ Department of Ocean Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
¹² Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
¹³ UMR CNRS 7058 'Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés' (EDYSAN), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, 80000 Amiens, France.
¹⁴ Environmental Studies Department, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
¹⁵ Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
¹⁶ Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia; Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
¹⁷ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
¹⁸ Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
¹⁹ US Fish and Wildlife Service, Tallahassee, Florida, USA.
²⁰ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
²¹ Department of Wildlife Ecology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.

PMID: 40681396
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2025.06.009

Review

Extreme events drive rapid and dynamic range fluctuations

Lydia G Soifer et al. Trends Ecol Evol. 2025 Sep.

. 2025 Sep;40(9):862-873.

doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2025.06.009. Epub 2025 Jul 17.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. Electronic address: lysoifer@gmail.com.
² Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources, and Rutgers Climate and Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.
³ Ecology & Biodiversity, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands; Plants & Ecosystems, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
⁴ Research Centre for Ecological Change, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Biology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
⁵ Yale School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
⁶ Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, UK.
⁷ School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.
⁸ Department of Clinical Microbiology, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
⁹ School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK; School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
¹⁰ Studio Sophie Falkeis, Vienna, Austria.
¹¹ Department of Ocean Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
¹² Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
¹³ UMR CNRS 7058 'Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés' (EDYSAN), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, 80000 Amiens, France.
¹⁴ Environmental Studies Department, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
¹⁵ Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
¹⁶ Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia; Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
¹⁷ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
¹⁸ Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
¹⁹ US Fish and Wildlife Service, Tallahassee, Florida, USA.
²⁰ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
²¹ Department of Wildlife Ecology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.

PMID: 40681396
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2025.06.009

Abstract

Climate change is altering species' distributions globally. Increasing frequency of extreme weather and climate events (EWCEs) is one of the hallmarks of climate change. Despite species redistribution being widely studied in response to long-term climatic trends, the contribution of EWCEs to range shifts is not well understood. We outline how EWCEs can trigger rapid and unexpected range boundary fluctuations by impacting dispersal, establishment, and survival. Whether these mechanisms cause temporary or persistent range shifts depends on the spatiotemporal context and exposure to EWCEs. Using the increasing availability of data and statistical tools to examine EWCE impacts at fine spatiotemporal resolutions on species redistribution will be critical for informing conservation management of ecologically, economically, and culturally important species.

Keywords: dispersal; extreme weather and climate events; range contraction; range expansion; range shifts.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests.

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Extreme events drive rapid and dynamic range fluctuations

Affiliations

Extreme events drive rapid and dynamic range fluctuations

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

Publication types

MeSH terms

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Medical