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. 2025 Jul 19.
doi: 10.1007/s12020-025-04356-y. Online ahead of print.

Global epidemiology of type 1 diabetes in youth: 1990-2021 and projections to 2045

Kexin Zhang  1 , Chengxia Kan  1 , Fang Han  2 , Yanhui Ma  2 , Yuqun Wang  1 , Xuan Li  3 , Guoji Xiong  1 , Jinyan Chen  1 , Xiao Yu  1 , Ningning Hou  4 , Xiaodong Sun  5
Affiliations

Global epidemiology of type 1 diabetes in youth: 1990-2021 and projections to 2045

Kexin Zhang et al. Endocrine. .

Abstract

Aims: This study examines the global burden of type 1 diabetes (T1D) among adolescents and young adults (15-39 years) from 1990-2021, with projections to 2045.

Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, we analyzed T1D prevalence, incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and annual percent change (AAPC), with regional and gender differences.

Results: In 2021, global T1D prevalence among 15-39-year-olds was 7.34 million cases (95% UI: 5.94-9.00 million), with males accounting for 50.66%. Incidence was 196,104 cases (141,606-277,782), with 55.31% males. From 1990-2021, prevalence increased from 200.11-246.89 per 100,000 (AAPC 0.68), and incidence rose from 5.10-6.59 per 100,000 (AAPC 0.83). In 2021, there were 16,135 deaths and 1.40 million DALYs, with 54.94% attributed to males. Death rates decreased (AAPC -0.35). Middle SDI regions had the highest prevalence (1.86 million) and incidence (54,541), while high SDI areas had the highest rates. Low-middle SDI areas had the most deaths (5170) and DALYs (419,772). South Asia had the highest prevalence (1.73 million), incidence (46,310), deaths (5189), and DALYs (413,293). India, the USA, and China had the highest prevalence and incidence, while Finland, Canada, and Italy had the highest rates. By 2045, T1D incidence is projected to reach 571,556 cases, predominantly affecting those aged 15-19 years.

Conclusion: The rising burden of T1D among adolescents and young adults underscores the need for targeted interventions and healthcare policies, particularly in high-risk regions.

Keywords: Adolescents; Epidemiology; Global burden of disease; Projections; Type 1 diabetes; Young adults.

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Conflict of interest statement

Compliance with ethical standards. Conflict of interest: The authors declare no competing interests.

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