Differences in the incidence and mortality of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer between the Global Cancer Observatory 2022 and the Global Burden of Disease 2021

Abstract

Background: The Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2022 and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 are two primary databases for assessing the global cancer burden. This study aimed to compare the incidence and mortality rates of tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer reported in these databases and to analyze the observed discrepancies.

Methods: Age-standardized rates (ASRs), including age-standardized incidence rates and age-standardized mortality rates for TBL cancer, were obtained from GLOBOCAN 2022 and GBD 2021 for the most recent available year. Differences in ASRs at the national level between the two databases were quantified using pairwise differences, calculated as the absolute difference in ASRs divided by the mean of the ASRs from both sources. Correlations between macroeconomic factors and pairwise differences in ASRs were evaluated, and country features correlated with high pairwise differences were assessed. The data sources and methods used in the two databases were also compared.

Results: Strong correlations were identified between ASRs reported by GLOBOCAN 2022 and GBD 2021; however, significant differences were observed between estimates from the two data sources. African countries commonly exhibited larger pairwise differences in ASRs, whereas European countries demonstrated smaller pairwise differences in ASRs. Additionally, some populous developing countries, including China, South Africa, Brazil and India, showed smaller differences in ASRs. Countries lacking vital registration systems or high-quality population-based cancer registries displayed larger differences in ASRs. Furthermore, differences in ASRs were negatively correlated with macroeconomic factors. The data sources and estimation methods used by the two databases were inconsistent.

Conclusions: Discrepancies in TBL cancer incidence and mortality were observed between GLOBOCAN 2022 and GBD 2021. While differences in sources and methods partially explain these discrepancies, a country's cancer surveillance maturity and economic status also correlate with the accuracy of the estimates. Estimating the cancer burden in less wealthy countries remains a substantial challenge, necessitating long-term assistance and investment.

Keywords: Global Burden of Disease 2021; Global Cancer Observatory 2022; Incidence; Mortality; Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer.

Fig. 1

(A) Correlation of ASIRs of TBL cancer. (B) Correlation of ASMRs of TBL cancer between GLOBOCAN 2022 and GBD 2021. (C) Comparison of ASIRs of TBL cancer between GLOBOCAN 2022 and GBD 2021. (D) Comparison of the ASMRs of TBL cancer between GLOBOCAN 2022 and GBD 2021. ASIRs, age-standardized incidence rates; ASMRs, age-standardized mortality rates; GBD, Global Burden of Disease; GLOBOCAN, Global Cancer Observatory; TBL, tracheal, bronchus, and lung.

Fig. 2

Comparisons of pairwise differences in TBL cancer incidence and mortality between GBD 2021 and GLOBOCAN 2022 by quality of cancer surveillance system, income level and region. (A) Quality of PBCRs and pairwise differences in ASIRs. (B) Quality of vital registration systems and pairwise differences in ASMRs. (C) Income level and pairwise differences in ASIRs. (D) Income level and pairwise differences in ASMRs. (E) Aeras of the world and pairwise differences in ASIRs. (F) Aeras of the world and pairwise differences in ASMRs. AFR, African region; AMR, region of the Americas; ASIRs, age-standardized incidence rates; ASMRs, age-standardized mortality rates; EMR, Eastern Mediterranean region; EUR, European region; GBD, Global Burden of Disease; GLOBOCAN, Global Cancer Observatory; PBCRs, population-based cancer registries; SEAR, Southeast Asia region; TBL, tracheal, bronchus, and lung; WPR, Western Pacific region.

Fig. 3

Correlations between macroeconomic factors and pairwise differences in ASIRs. (A) HDI and pairwise differences in ASIRs. (B) GDP per capita and pairwise differences in ASIRs. (C) CHE per capita and pairwise differences in ASIRs. (D) GGHE-D per capita and pairwise differences in ASIRs. ASIRs, age-standardized incidence rates; CHE, current health expenditure; GDP, gross domestic product; GGHE-D, domestic general government health expenditure; HDI, human development index.

Fig. 4

Correlations between macroeconomic factors and pairwise differences in ASMRs. (A) HDI and pairwise differences in ASMRs. (B) GDP per capita and pairwise differences in ASMRs. (C) CHE per capita and pairwise differences in ASMRs. (D) GGHE-D per capita and pairwise differences in ASMRs. ASMRs, age-standardized mortality rates; CHE, current health expenditure; GDP, gross domestic product; GGHE-D, domestic general government health expenditure; HDI, Human Development Index.