Global burden of cervical cancer: current estimates, temporal trend and future projections based on the GLOBOCAN 2022

Abstract

Background: Cervical cancer is the only cancer that can be eliminated worldwide. Tracking the latest burden of cervical cancer is critical toward the targets set by World Health Organization (WHO) to eliminate cervical cancer as a major public health problem.

Methods: All data were extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2022. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) of cervical cancer were compared and linked to Human Development Index (HDI) between populations. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to characterize the temporal trend in ASIR/ASMR, and demographic estimates were projected up to 2050.

Results: Globally, an estimated 662,044 cases (ASIR: 14.12/100,000) and 348,709 deaths (ASMR: 7.08/100,000) from cervical cancer occurred in 2022, corresponding to the fourth cause of cancer morbidity and mortality in women worldwide. Specifically, 42 % of cases and 39 % of deaths occurred in China (23 % and 16 %) and India (19 % and 23 %). Both ASIR and ASMR of cervical cancer decreased with HDI, and similar decreasing links were observed for both early-onset (0-39 years) and late-onset (≥40 years) cervical cancer. Both ASIR and ASMR of overall cervical cancer showed decreasing trends during 2003-2012 (EAPC: 0.04 % and -1.03 %); however, upward trends were observed for early-onset cervical cancer (EAPC: 1.16 % and 0.57 %). If national rates in 2022 remain stable, the estimated cases and deaths from cervical cancer are projected to increase by 56.8 % and 80.7 % up to 2050. Moreover, the projected increase of early-onset cervical cancer is mainly observed in transitioning countries, while decreased burden is expected in transitioned countries.

Conclusions: Cervical cancer remains a common cause of cancer death in many countries, especially in transitioning countries. Unless scaling-up preventive interventions, human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical cancer screening, as well as systematic cooperation within government, civil societies, and private enterprises, the global burden of cervical cancer would be expected to increase in the future.

Keywords: Cervical cancer; Future projection; Incidence; Mortality; Temporal trend.

Fig. 1

The 20 countries with the highest ASIR and ASMR of cervical cancer in 2022. (A) Overall cervical cancer, (B) Early-onset cervical cancer, (C) Late-onset cervical cancer. ASIR, Age-Standardized Incidence Rates; ASMR, Age-Standardized Mortality Rates.

Fig. 2

Link between HDI and ASIR and ASMR of cervical cancer. (A) ASIR of overall cervical cancer. (B) ASIR of early-onset cervical cancer. (C) ASIR of late-onset cervical cancer. (D) ASMR of overall cervical cancer. (E) ASMR of early-onset cervical cancer. (F) ASMR of late-onset cervical cancer. ASIR, Age-Standardized Incidence Rates; ASMR, Age-Standardized Mortality Rates; HDI, Human Development Index.

Fig. 3

EAPC of Age-Standardized Rate of cervical cancer, based on all available country-level data. (A) EAPC of overall cervical cancer ASIR. (B) EAPC of early-onset cervical cancer ASIR. (C) EAPC of late-onset cervical cancer ASIR. (D) EAPC of overall cervical cancer ASMR. (E) EAPC of early-onset cervical cancer ASMR. (F) EAPC of late-onset cervical cancer ASMR. ASIR, Age-Standardized Incidence Rates; ASMR, Age-Standardized Mortality Rates; EAPC, Estimated Annual Percentage Change.

Fig. 4

Predicted percentage change in estimated cases and deaths from cervical cancer between 2022 and 2050 by HDI. (A) Change in overall cervical cancer cases. (B) Change of early-onset cervical cancer cases. (C) Change of late-onset cervical cancer cases. (D) Change of overall cervical cancer deaths. (E) Change of early-onset cervical cancer deaths. (F) Change of late-onset cervical cancer deaths. HDI, Human Development Index.