Global, Regional, and National Burden of Pancreatitis in Adults Aged 20-54 Years, 1990-2021: Insight from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Abstract

Background: Pancreatitis is a significant global health concern, particularly among working-age adults, yet comprehensive evaluations are scarce.

Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data, we assessed the prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of pancreatitis in individuals aged 20-54 years across 204 countries from 1990 to 2021. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were analyzed.

Results: Globally, ASRs for prevalence, mortality, and DALYs declined from 1990 to 2021. The most pronounced decline occurred in prevalence (EAPC, - 1.1; 95% CI, - 1.2 to - 1.0), whereas mortality (EAPC, - 0.6; 95% CI, - 0.8 to - 0.5) and DALYs (EAPC, - 0.6; 95% CI, - 0.77 to - 0.5) showed only modest reductions. Regional disparities existed, with reductions in High-income Asia Pacific, East Asia, and Central Europe and rising trends in Eastern Europe and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2021, Eastern Europe had the highest prevalence (791.4 per 100,000), mortality (6.3 per 100,000) and DALYs (349.4 per 100,000) ASRs. At the national level, the Russian Federation reported the highest burden. Age-specific analyses revealed a peak in burden in middle adulthood, with males exhibiting higher rates. A nonlinear relationship with the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) was observed, with burden peaking in middle-SDI regions. High alcohol consumption was a major risk factor, particularly in parts of Europe and Australasia.

Conclusions: Despite overall declines, limited reductions in mortality and DALYs indicate little improvement in prognosis. Pancreatitis remains a major global health issue, particularly in regions like Eastern Europe, underscoring the need for better prevention and management.

Keywords: Disparity; Global burden of disease; Pancreatitis; Working-age.