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. 2025 Jul 24:S1542-3565(25)00622-6.
doi: 10.1016/j.cgh.2025.07.011. Online ahead of print.

Longitudinal Changes in Fibrosis Markers: Monitoring Stiffness/Fibrosis Progression and Prognostic Outcomes in MASLD

Xiao-Dong Zhou  1 Yu-Ting Li  2 Seung Up Kim  3 Terry Cheuk-Fung Yip  4 Salvatore Petta  5 Atsushi Nakajima  6 Emmanuel Tsochatzis  7 Junping Shi  8 Wah-Kheong Chan  9 Jérôme Boursier  10 Elisabetta Bugianesi  11 Yusuf Yilmaz  12 Hannes Hagström  13 Manuel Romero-Gomez  14 Khalid Alswat  15 José Luis Calleja  16 Hirokazu Takahashi  17 Victor de Lédinghen  18 Shalimar  19 Laurent Castéra  20 Arun J Sanyal  21 George Boon-Bee Goh  22 Philip N Newsome  23 Jian-Gao Fan  24 Michelle Lai  25 Sandeep Aggarwal  26 Stergios Kechagias  27 Yoichi Hiasa  28 Zhongtao Zhang  29 Jacob George  30 Mohamed El-Kassas  31 Jinjun Chen  32 Hong You  33 Barham K Abu Dayyeh  34 Huiping Sheng  35 Leon A Adams  36 Jing Wang  37 Fangping He  38 Huiqing Liang  39 Yong-Feng Yang  40 Xiaoling Chi  41 Bihui Zhong  42 Yan Bi  43 Yuqiang Mi  44 Yongfen Zhu  45 Rixing Bai  46 Jing Zhang  47 Bingyuan Wang  48 Jinghai Song  49 Hong Deng  50 Qing Xie  51 Lang Bai  52 Yongning Xin  53 Wen Xie  54 Jie Li  55 Céline Fournier-Poizat  18 Chutian Wu  56 Hye Won Lee  3 Grace Lai-Hung Wong  57 Angelo Armandi  11 Ying Shang  58 Grazia Pennisi  5 Elba Llop  16 Masato Yoneda  6 Marc de Saint-Loup  10 Carmen Lara-Romero  14 Rocio Gallego-Durán  14 Amon Asgharpour  21 Kevin Kim-Jun Teh  22 Mandy Sau-Wai Chan  18 Huapeng Lin  59 Wen-Yue Liu  60 Sherlot Juan Song  57 Waleed K Al-Hamoudi  15 Hiroshi Isoda  61 Teruki Miyake  28 Sanjaya K Satapathy  62 Mengyi Li  29 Keshni Sharma  30 Mohammed Emadeldeen  63 Ling Zhou  32 Xiaofei Tong  33 Fateh Bazerbachi  64 Xiaotang Fan  38 Huanming Xiao  41 Junzhao Ye  42 Liang Xu  44 Xiaolin Wang  51 Yi-Xuan Wei  1 Mirko Zoncape  7 Wenhao Li  65 Vincent Wai-Sun Wong  66 Ming-Hua Zheng  67 VCTE-Prognosis Study GroupPaired Liver Biopsy Group
Collaborators, Affiliations

Longitudinal Changes in Fibrosis Markers: Monitoring Stiffness/Fibrosis Progression and Prognostic Outcomes in MASLD

Xiao-Dong Zhou et al. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol. .

Abstract

Background & aims: Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) is a noninvasive tool for assessing liver fibrosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). However, its role of dynamic FIB-4 for assessing fibrosis progression and predicting clinical outcomes remains unclear. The aim of this study was to examine the association between changes in FIB-4 and changes in liver stiffness, fibrosis progression, and outcomes in MASLD.

Methods: Three cohorts were analyzed: VCTE-Prognosis cohort (n = 10,203) for stiffness progression, Paired Liver Biopsy cohort (n = 1,145) for fibrosis progression, and Wenzhou Real-World (WRW) cohort (n = 41,105) for clinical outcomes. Stiffness progression was defined as an increase in liver stiffness measurement, and fibrosis progression by a 1-stage increase. Outcomes included all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and liver-related events (LREs). FIB-4 was dichotomized into low (<1.3) and high (≥1.3). Increases were defined as ≥20% rise and to ≥1.3 in the low FIB-4 group, and ≥20% rise in the high FIB-4 group.

Results: In the VCTE-Prognosis cohort, stiffness progression was more likely with increasing vs stable FIB-4 (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.36; P < .001) in those with low baseline FIB-4. In the high FIB-4 group, stiffness progression rates increased from stable to increasing FIB-4 (adjusted OR, 3.42; P < .001). In the Paired Liver Biopsy cohort, fibrosis progression was more frequent with increasing FIB-4 (adjusted OR, 2.20; P = .004 in low FIB-4; adjusted OR, 3.68; P < .001 in high FIB-4). In the WRW cohort, an increase in dynamic FIB-4 was linked to higher risks for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and LREs (all P < .001).

Conclusions: Dynamic FIB-4 monitoring tracks fibrosis and stiffness progression and predicts clinical outcomes in MASLD.

Keywords: Fibrosis; Fibrosis-4 Index; Liver Cirrhosis; Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Steatotic Liver Disease; Prognosis.

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