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. 2025 Jul 29;15(1):27572.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-13257-z.

Additive effect of wildfires on hospital admission in the Pantanal wetland, Brazil

André Calixto Gonçalves  1 , Marcelo Marques de Magalhães  2 , Gustavo Andrey de Almeida Lopes Fernandes  3 , Ivan Filipe Fernandes  4 , Kaylane de Almeida Faria  5 , Gabriel Alexandre Dos Santos  5 , R Valentim  6 , Gabriela Moraes do Nascimento  5 , Francisco Aparecido Rodrigues  7 , Ricardo Ceneviva  4 , Maria Clara Mendes Stama  5 , Daniel Tetsuo G Mori  5   8 , Carolina Nascimento Capellini  9 , Maria Eduarda Feres Garcia  9 , Thiago Bruschi  5 , Gabriel Poveda Gonçalves  10 , Laís Costa Brito  5 , Djeansy Djarny Etchiamiadzy Toussaint  11 , Rejane Calixto Gonçalves  12 , O C Luiz  12
Affiliations

Additive effect of wildfires on hospital admission in the Pantanal wetland, Brazil

André Calixto Gonçalves et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Forest fires release toxic pollutants from burning vegetation, posing serious risks to human health. The Brazilian Pantanal-the world's largest continuous wetland-is currently experiencing severe wildfires. This situation may lead to a spike in hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. To assess the health impacts of these fires on local populations, we applied a generalized linear model incorporating geographic variables, including air quality and climate data. This approach allowed us to evaluate the relationship between active fire outbreaks and hospitalizations among residents of the Pantanal. Our results reveal a troubling pattern: an increase of 10 active fires is associated with a significant rise in daily hospitalizations. Over a 10-year period, the risk of respiratory hospitalizations rose by 23.2%, while cardiovascular hospitalizations increased by 22.3% for every 10 additional fires. These findings underscore the urgent need for preventive action. By forecasting the potential daily rise in hospital admissions, our study offers valuable insights to help Brazilian authorities implement fire mitigation strategies and strengthen the preparedness of the local healthcare system.

Keywords: Brazilian pantanal; Cardiovascular diseases; Forest fires; General linear model; Hospital admission; Respiratory diseases.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Geographic Boundaries and Municipal Population Data of the Brazilian Pantanal. Map showing the Pantanal biome area in Brazil. Data sources: IBGE SIDRA system (used under a CC BY 4.0 license). Map created by the authors using QGIS version 3.34.14 (https://qgis.org).
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Trends in livestock, agricultural production, plant extraction, and burned area in the Brazilian Pantanal over the Past 20 Years. Data Source: IBGE Sidra System and INPE Burning System.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Long-term patterns in respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality per 100,000 residents in Pantanal municipalities. Source: Data from the DataSUS.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Fire outbreaks, air pollutants, and air quality trends in the Pantanal biome (2010–2019).
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Terrain and topography of the Brazilian Pantanal. Map showing the mountainous region of the Pantanal. Adapted from IBGE (used under a CC BY 4.0 license) and OpenStreetMap data (OpenStreetMap contributors), used under the Open Database License (ODbL) – https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright. Map modified by the authors through graphic editing.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Temporal distribution of fire outbreaks in Corumbá, 2010–2019. Data source: Data from the IBGE and NASA data,.
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Relative risk of hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases associated with fire hotspots (10-Day Lag).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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