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. 2021 Sep;47(3):781-811.
doi: 10.1111/padr.12408. Epub 2021 Jul 8.

How Armed Conflict Influences Migration

Nathalie E Williams  1 , Michelle L O'Brien  2 , Xiaozheng Yao  3
Affiliations

How Armed Conflict Influences Migration

Nathalie E Williams et al. Popul Dev Rev. 2021 Sep.

Abstract

The literature on migration during armed confiict is abundant. Yet, the questions of highest policy relevance-how many people will leave because of a confiict and how many more people will be living outside a country because of a confiict-are not well addressed. This article explores these questions using an agent-based model, a computational simulation that allows us to connect armed confiict to individual behavioral changes and then to aggregate migration fiows and migrant stocks. With detailed data from Nepal during the 1996-2006 confiict, we find that out-migration rates actually decrease on average, largely due to a prior decrease in return migration. Regardless, the stock of migrants outside the country increases modestly during that period. Broadly, this study demonstrates that population dynamics are inherent to and necessary for understanding confiict-related migration. We conclude with a discussion of the generalizability and policy implications of this study.

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Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1. Conceptual framework
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2. Flow diagram for the individual module of the Chitwan ABM
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3. Comparison of population size, growth rates, and CBR s from Nepal (U.N. Population Division) and simulated Chitwan ABM values: (a) population size, (b) population growth rate, and (c) CBR
FIGURE 4
FIGURE 4. Annual men’s and women’s out-migration rates, based on Chitwan ABM: (a) men’s out-migration rates, (b) percent difference in men’s out-migration rates from no conflict scenario, (c) women’s out-migration rates, and (d) percent difference in women’s out-migration rates from no conflict scenario
FIGURE 5
FIGURE 5. Monthly predicted probabilities of men’s out-migration, based on regression equation: (a) predicted probabilities and (b) percent difference in predicted probability from no conflict scenario
FIGURE 6
FIGURE 6. Percent difference in men’s out-migration rates, between no conflict and conflict scenarios. Results from main ABM, test ABM 1 where marital status has no effect on migration likelihood, and test ABM 2 where children have no effect on migration likelihood
FIGURE 7
FIGURE 7. Annual return migration rates, based on Chitwan ABM: (a) men’s return rates, (b) percent difference from no conflict scenario for men’s return rates, (c) women’s return rates, and (d) percent difference from no conflict scenario for women’s return rates
FIGURE 8
FIGURE 8. Percent difference between no conflict and conflict scenarios, comparing out- and return migration rates, based on Chitwan ABM: (a) men and (b) women
FIGURE 9
FIGURE 9. Path diagram of possible mechanisms linking armed conflict and out-migration rates. Stronger effects are represented with solid and dashed arrows
FIGURE 10
FIGURE 10. Migrant stock, based on Chitwan ABM: (a) percent of population living out (migrant stock) each year and (b) the number of extra people living out (migrant stock) in each conflict scenario compared to the no conflict scenario
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