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. 2025 Jul 30;15(1):27854.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-13581-4.

Exploring the crop suitability of first-contact tribal lands in the eastern United States: impacts of past and near-future climate conditions

Zach Conrad  1   2 , Matthias Leu  3 , Eli Fulcher  3 , Songze Wu  4 , Chloe DiStaso  4 , Juan Boston  5 , Tomalita Peterson  5 , Beth Roach  6 , Tommy Tupponce  7 , Jessica Phillips  8 , Troy Wiipongwii  4   9
Affiliations

Exploring the crop suitability of first-contact tribal lands in the eastern United States: impacts of past and near-future climate conditions

Zach Conrad et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Indigenous communities in the United States have experienced a long history of land displacement, disrupted food systems, and inadequate federal services, which have contributed to nutrition-related health disparities. Initiatives to support Indigenous agriculture may help address these injustices, yet little is known about the agricultural crop suitability of tribal lands, especially under future climate conditions. This study fills this gap by developing geoclimatic forecasting models that quantify the agricultural potential of all 24 first-contact tribal lands in Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina. Geoclimatic models included stationary variables (soil texture, salinity, drainage, and pH; elevation; and slope) and dynamic variables (monthly and annual precipitation, and monthly temperature). Tribal representatives and community leaders were partners in this research to protect Indigenous data sovereignty, ensure cultural relevance of the research design, and provide tribe-specific data on land delineations. By 2040, optimal agricultural land was predicted to decrease by 27% (1.525 km2) and the number of culturally relevant crop species was predicted to decrease by 36% (from 11 to 7). These findings provide context for policy initiatives that have emerged or accelerated to restore environmentally sensitive agricultural areas, support new and existing Indigenous food producers, and strengthen consumer markets for Indigenous food products.

Keywords: Agriculture; Climate; Food sovereignty; Indigenous; Sustainable; Tribe.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Ethics declarations: This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board at William & Mary (PHSC-2024-09-17-17239). All participants provided written informed consent. This study was funded by the Jeffress Trust Awards Program in Research Addressing Health Equity. The funder had no role in the conceptualization, design, data collection, analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. ZC has research awards from the US Department of Agriculture and National Pork Board for activities unrelated to the present study.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Location of suitable agricultural lands in Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina, under past (1970–2000) and near-future (2021–2040) climate conditions, when land suitability scores were A), 0.6 B), 0.7, C) 0.8, D) 0.9, and E) 1.0.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Land area suitable for agricultural production under past (1970–2000) and near-future (2021–2040) climate conditions.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Land area suitable for agricultural production, by crop type, under (A) past climate conditions (1970–2000) and (B) near-future climate conditions (2021–2040).
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Species richness under past (1970–2000) and near-future (2021–2040) climate conditions.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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