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. 2025 Aug 4:34:e20240778.
doi: 10.1590/S2237-96222025v34e20240778.en. eCollection 2025.

Temporal trends in incidence and mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis: time series study, Sul da Bahia, 2010-2023

[Article in English, Portuguese]
Marília Caixeta de Araujo  1 , Renata Soares Passinho  1 , Renan Sallazar Ferreira Pereira  2 , Delio José Mora  1
Affiliations

Temporal trends in incidence and mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis: time series study, Sul da Bahia, 2010-2023

[Article in English, Portuguese]
Marília Caixeta de Araujo et al. Epidemiol Serv Saude. .

Abstract
in English, Spanish

Objective: To analyze the temporal trend of incidence and mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis in Southern Bahia.

Methods: Time series study of new cases and deaths from pulmonary tuberculosis conduccted on Costa do Descobrimento and in the Extremo Sul of Bahia. The number of new cases and deaths from pulmonary tuberculosis was obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System, between 2010 and 2023, and used to calculate incidence and mortality. Prais-Winsten regression was used to calculate the annual percentage variation (APV) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) and to classify trends.

Results: 4,005 new cases and 128 deaths from pulmonary tuberculosis were registrated during the period of the study. The average incidence was 34.91 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and mortality was 1.11 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. Incidence and mortality showed stationary trends. Decreasing incidence occurred in females (APV -0.01; 95%CI -0.02; -0.01) and in the age groups of 0-9 years (APV -0.02; 95%CI -0.04; -0.01), 40-59 years (APV -0.01; 95%CI -0.02; -0.01) and 60 years or older (APV -0.01; 95%CI -0.04; -0.01). Costa do Descobrimento showed a decreasing incidence for females (APV -0.02; 95%CI -0.03; -0.01) and for the age group of 40-59 years (APV -0.02; 95%CI -0.03; -0.01). In Extremo Sul, the incidence decreased in the 20-39 age group (APC -0.01; 95%CI -0.02; -0.01).

Conclusion: Although temporal trend of incidence and mortality were stationary, public health strategies are necessary, especially on Costa do Descobrimento, which maintained the highest rates of pulmonary tuberculosis.

Objetivo: Analizar la tendencia temporal de la incidencia y mortalidad por tuberculosis pulmonar en el sur de Bahía.

Métodos: Estudio de series temporales de casos nuevos y muertes por tuberculosis pulmonar en la Costa do Descobrimento y en el Extremo Sur de Bahía. El número de casos nuevos y muertes por tuberculosis pulmonar se obtuvo del Sistema de Registro y Notificación de Incidentes, entre 2010 y 2023, y se utilizó para calcular la incidencia y la mortalidad. Se utilizó la regresión de Prais-Winsten para calcular el cambio porcentual anual (VPA) y el intervalo de confianza del 95% (IC95%) y clasificar las tendencias.

Resultados: Se registraron 4.005 casos nuevos y 128 fallecimientos por tuberculosis pulmonar. La incidencia media fue de 34,91 casos por cada 100.000 habitantes y la mortalidad de 1,11 muertes por cada 100.000 habitantes. La incidencia y la mortalidad mostraron tendencias estacionarias. Se observó una incidencia decreciente en mujeres (APC -0,01; IC95% -0,02; -0,01) y en los grupos de edad de 0 a 9 años (APC -0,02; IC95% -0,04; -0,01), 40 a 59 años (APC -0,01; IC95% -0,02; -0,01) y 60 años o más (APC -0,01; IC95% -0,04; -0,01). La Costa del Descubrimiento mostró una incidencia decreciente para las mujeres (VPA -0,02; IC del 95% -0,03; -0,01) y el grupo de edad de 40 a 59 años (VPA -0,02; IC del 95% -0,03; -0,01). En el extremo sur, la incidencia disminuyó en el grupo de edad de 20 a 39 años (APC -0,01; IC95% -0,02; -0,01).

Conclusión: Aunque la tendencia temporal de la incidencia y la mortalidad ha sido estacionaria, son necesarias estrategias de salud pública, especialmente en la Costa do Descobrimento, que mantuvo las tasas más altas de tuberculosis pulmonar.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of interest: None to declare.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Costa do Descobrimento and Extremo Sul, in the state of Bahia, and classification of trends for incidence rates of pulmonary tuberculosis in their municipalities, 2010-2023 (n=4,005)
Figure 2
Figure 2. Time series of the incidence rate (A) and mortality rate (B) for pulmonary tuberculosis. Costa do Descobrimento and Extremo Sul, Bahia, 2010-2023 (n=4,005)
Figura 1
Figura 1. Territórios Costa do Descobrimento e Extremo Sul da Bahia e classificação das tendências para as taxas de incidência por tuberculose pulmonar em seus municípios, 2010-2023 (n=4.005)
Figura 2
Figura 2. Série temporal da taxa de incidência (A) e da taxa de mortalidade (B) por tuberculose pulmonar. Costa do Descobrimento e Extremo Sul da Bahia, 2010-2023 (n=4.005)
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