Global, regional, and national burden of high sugar-sweetened beverages consumption, 1990-2021, with projections up to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Abstract

Background: Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have emerged as a critical driver of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), such as obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular, and kidney diseases.

Objectives: To provide a comprehensive analysis of the global, regional, and national burden of high SSB consumption between 1990 and 2021, with projections up to 2050, and to estimate the burden of NCDs attributed to SSBs.

Methods: This study analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. A diet high in SSBs was defined as any beverage containing ≥50 kcal/226.8 g serving, including carbonated beverages, sodas, energy drinks, and fruit drinks, but excluding 100% fruit and vegetable juices. The summary exposure value (SEV) represents the population-level risk exposure to this excessive consumption. The burden of SSB consumption attributed to NCDs, as well as specifically cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and kidney disease, was assessed through death rates (per 100,000 people), years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years. Analyses included total and annual percentage changes. Future SEV forecasts were generated using ensemble models considering the sociodemographic index.

Results: In 2021, the global SEV of high SSB consumption was 30.56% (95% uncertainty intervals: 22.83, 41.22), with the highest rates in high-income and Latin America and Caribbean super-regions. SSB consumption increased with the sociodemographic index. The global age-standardized rate (per 100,000 people) of deaths from NCDs attributable to SSB consumption was 0.89 (0.40, 1.38), and the disability-adjusted life year was 41.39 (19.52, 63.92) in 2021. Projection indicates a 9.54% (9.08%, 10.00%) increase in global SSB consumption by 2050, with the highest rise expected in the South Asia super-region.

Conclusions: SSB consumption has increased since 1990 and is projected to rise further by 2050, contributing substantially to the global NCD burden. These trends underscore the urgent need for targeted public health interventions aimed at reducing SSB consumption worldwide.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases; diabetes; forecasts; global burden of disease; noncommunicable diseases; public health; sugar-sweetened beverages.