[Incidence and evaluation of the risk of coronary disease. Prospective study in Paris]

Abstract

The Paris prospective study in an epidemiological study of 7,453 middle-aged men born in France, and initially free from ischaemic heart disease. The current mean follow-up time is 4 years. The mean annual incidence is 5.1 per 1000, which is about one half that found in similar american studies. This incidence is related to the cholesterol level, to the blood pressure, to cigarette consumption when the smoke is inhaled, to diabetes mellitus, and to major abnormalities on the electrocardiogram. These five factors are mutually independant in their prediction of the risk of future illness. A formula has been derived by statistical analysis, and takes these five factors into account: the incidence of illness rises exponentially as a function of this formula. New cases of ischaemic heart disease are distributed, but with a very patchy incidence, in this population, of which only a very small number remain disease-free. A table has been drawn up to show the probability of a middle aged male contracting ischeamic heart disease within 4 years, and takes the 5 factors into account: this probability varies between 0.5 per cent and 34 per cent.