Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2025 Jul 22;13(15):1774.
doi: 10.3390/healthcare13151774.

Epidemiology and Future Burden of Vertebral Fractures: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease 1990-2021

Youngoh Bae  1   2 , Minyoung Kim  3 , Woonyoung Jeong  3 , Suho Jang  2 , Seung Won Lee  2   3   4
Affiliations

Epidemiology and Future Burden of Vertebral Fractures: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease 1990-2021

Youngoh Bae et al. Healthcare (Basel). .

Abstract

Background/Objectives: Vertebral fractures (VFs) are a global health issue caused by traumatic or pathological factors that compromise spinal integrity. The burden of VFs is increasing, particularly in older adults. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 were analyzed to estimate the prevalence, mortality, and years lived with disability due to VFs from 1990 to 2021. Estimates were stratified according to age, sex, and region. Bayesian meta-regression models were used to generate age-standardized rates, and projections for 2050 were calculated using demographic trends and the sociodemographic index. Das Gupta's decomposition assessed the relative contributions of population growth, aging, and prevalence changes to future case numbers. Results: In 2021, approximately 5.37 million people (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 4.70-6.20 million) experienced VFs globally, with an age-standardized prevalence of 65 per 100,000. Although the rates have declined slightly since 1990, the absolute burden has increased owing to population aging. VF prevalence was the highest in Eastern and Western Europe and in high-income regions. Males had higher VF rates until 70 years of age, after which females surpassed them, reflecting postmenopausal osteoporosis. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of VF. By 2050, the number of VF cases is expected to increase to 8.01 million (95% UI: 6.57-8.64 million). Conclusions: While the age-standardized VF rates have decreased slightly, the global burden continues to increase. Targeted strategies for the early diagnosis, osteoporosis management, and fall prevention are necessary to reduce the impact of VFs.

Keywords: 2050 projections; YLDs; global burden of disease; prevalence; vertebral fracture.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Age-standardized prevalence of the fracture of the vertebral column by country for male and female sexes combined and for all ages in 2021.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Global prevalence of fracture of the vertebral column by age and sex in 2021. Shaded areas represent 95% uncertainty intervals.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Decomposition of projected change in the number of prevalent vertebral column fracture cases between 2020 and 2050.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

References

    1. Schousboe J.T. Epidemiology of vertebral fractures. J. Clin. Densitom. 2016;19:8–22. doi: 10.1016/j.jocd.2015.08.004. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Muratore M., Ferrera A., Masse A., Lavorato D., Bistolfi A., Formica M., Bianchi G., Bellato E., Felli L., Viganò M., et al. Osteoporotic vertebral fractures: Predictive factors for conservative treatment failure. Eur. Spine J. 2018;27:2565–2576. doi: 10.1007/s00586-017-5340-z. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Zeytinoglu M., Jain R.K., Vokes T.J. Vertebral fracture assessment: Enhancing the diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of osteoporosis. Bone. 2017;104:54–65. doi: 10.1016/j.bone.2017.03.004. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Lee B.G., Choi J.-H., Kim D.-Y., Choi W.R., Kim B.T., Lim J.H. Risk factors for newly developed osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures following treatment for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures. Spine J. 2019;19:301–305. doi: 10.1016/j.spinee.2018.06.347. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Eastell R., Reid D.M., Compston J., Cooper C., Fogelman I., Francis R.M., Hosking D.J., Kanis J.A., Purdie D.W., Ralston S.H. Secondary prevention of osteoporosis: When should a non-vertebral fracture be a trigger for action? QJM. 2001;94:575–597. doi: 10.1093/qjmed/94.11.575. - DOI - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources