A Novel Deep Learning Model for Predicting Colorectal Anastomotic Leakage: A Pioneer Multicenter Transatlantic Study

Abstract

Background/Objectives: Colorectal anastomotic leak (CAL) is one of the most severe postoperative complications in colorectal surgery, impacting patient morbidity and mortality. Current risk assessment methods rely on clinical and intraoperative factors, but no real-time predictive tool exists. This study aimed to develop an artificial intelligence model based on intraoperative laparoscopic recording of the anastomosis for CAL prediction. Methods: A convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained with annotated frames from colorectal surgery videos across three international high-volume centers (Instituto Português de Oncologia de Lisboa, Hospital das Clínicas de Ribeirão Preto, and Royal Liverpool University Hospital). The dataset included a total of 5356 frames from 26 patients, 2007 with CAL and 3349 showing normal anastomosis. Four CNN architectures (EfficientNetB0, EfficientNetB7, ResNet50, and MobileNetV2) were tested. The models' performance was evaluated using their sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. Heatmaps were generated to identify key image regions influencing predictions. Results: The best-performing model achieved an accuracy of 99.6%, AUROC of 99.6%, sensitivity of 99.2%, specificity of 100.0%, PPV of 100.0%, and NPV of 98.9%. The model reliably identified CAL-positive frames and provided visual explanations through heatmaps. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first AI model developed to predict CAL using intraoperative video analysis. Its accuracy suggests the potential to redefine surgical decision-making by providing real-time risk assessment. Further refinement with a larger dataset and diverse surgical techniques could enable intraoperative interventions to prevent CAL before it occurs, marking a paradigm shift in colorectal surgery.

Keywords: anastomosis leakage; artificial intelligence; deep learning.

Figure 1

The confusion matrix between the model and gold-standard diagnostic criteria for anastomosis leakage diagnosis in the testing dataset. AL—anastomosis leakage.

Figure 2

The heatmap generated by the deep learning model identifying the region of the image responsible for the anastomosis leakage prediction.