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. 2025 Jul 30:13:1603244.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1603244. eCollection 2025.

Analysis of the trends in burden of meningitis in China from 1990 to 2021, and projections until 2036

Xi Xu  1 , Kai Xu  1 , Qiulin Wu  2
Affiliations

Analysis of the trends in burden of meningitis in China from 1990 to 2021, and projections until 2036

Xi Xu et al. Front Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to describe the temporal trends in age and sex burdens of meningitis in China from 1990 to 2021 and to compare them with the global burden of the disease.

Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, this study analyzed the features of meningitis burden in China and globally, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized rates of mortality (ASMR), age-standardized rates of prevalence (ASPR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR). The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and associated 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were computed using Joinpoint. A comprehensive comparative analysis of the differences in meningitis burden between China and the world was conducted from multiple dimensions, including age, sex, and periods. Using the BAPC and INLA software tools to perform a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) analysis in R.

Results: From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR fell from 66.565/100,000 to 31.649/100,000 globally, and from 30.833/100,000 to 5.791/100,000 in China. The ASPR decreased from 11,291,266/100,000 to 92.251/100,000 globally, and from 140.1/100,000 to 16.622/100,000 in China. The ASMR decreased from 7.416/100,000 to 2.947/100,000 globally, while decreased from 3.537/100,000 to 0.475/100,000 in China. The ASDR decreased from 551.176/100,000 to 208.565/100,000 globally, while decreased from 267.304/100,000 to 27.952/100,000 in China. The global AAPC of ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR was -2.364, 2.679, -2.970%, and -3.131%, whereas in China it was -5.307, -6.665%, -6.311%, and -7.149, respectively. The effects of age and sex on the burden of meningitis were different. Men had higher incidence and mortality rates of meningitis than women. ASIR in males and females would decrease in the following years.

Conclusion: There was a discernible decline in the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs associated with meningitis in China and worldwide between 1990 and 2021. Meningitis is more common and fatal in infants and early children, followed by the older adult. Men are more likely than women to die from meningitis and to contract it. It is anticipated that the disease burden of meningitis will continue to decline over the ensuing 12 years. Meningitis continues to be a significant public health concern in China due to the country's huge and aging population.

Keywords: disability-adjusted life years; global burden of disease; incidence; meningitis; mortality; prevalence.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The APC of ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR of meningitis in China from 1990 to 2021 (* means p < 0.05 and significant results). (A) ASIR; (B) ASPR; (C) ASMR; (D) ASDR.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The APC of ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR of meningitis in global from 1990 to 2021 (* means p < 0.05 and significant results). (A) ASIR; (B) ASPR; (C) ASMR; (D) ASDR.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Trend comparison of ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR of meningitis in China (A) and worldwide (B) from 1990 to 2021.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Comparison of China’s incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs counts with their crude rates, by age group from 1990 to 2021. Bar plots show counts; lines show crude rates. (A) Incident cases and CIR; (B) Prevalent cases and CPR; (C) Death cases and CMR; (D) DALYs counts and CDR.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Comparison of the global incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs counts with their crude rates, by age group from 1990–2021. Bar plots show counts; lines show crude rates. (A) Incident cases and CIR; (B) Prevalent cases and CPR; (C) Death cases and CMR; (D) DALYs counts and CDR.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Comparison of the number of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of meningitis in males and females of different age groups in China in 1990. (A) Incidence; (B) Prevalence; (C) Mortality; (D) DALYs.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Comparison of the number of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of meningitis in males and females of different age groups in China in 2021. (A) Incidence; (B) Prevalence; (C) Mortality; (D) DALYs.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Comparison of the number of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of meningitis in males and females of different age groups globally in 1990. (A) Incidence; (B) Prevalence; (C) Mortality; (D) DALYs.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Comparison of the number of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of meningitis in males and females of different age groups globally in 2021. (A) Incidence; (B) Prevalence; (C) Mortality; (D) DALYs.
Figure 10
Figure 10
Comparison of age-standardized incidence, prevalence, death, and DALYs among Chinese men and women from 1990 to 2021. (A) Instances of incidents and ASIR; (B) Instances of prevalence and ASPR; (C) cases of deaths and ASMR; (D) counts of DALYs and ASDR. Bar charts show counts, and lines show rates normalized for age.
Figure 11
Figure 11
Comparison of age-standardized incidence, prevalence, death, and DALYs among men and women globally from 1990 to 2021. (A) Instances of incidents and ASIR; (B) Instances of prevalence and ASPR; (C) cases of deaths and ASMR; (D) counts of DALYs and ASDR. Bar charts show counts, and lines show rates normalized for age.
Figure 12
Figure 12
Trends of ASIR from 2021 to 2036 in males (A) and females (B) predicted by BAPC models.
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