Privacy Preserved Blood Glucose Level Cross-Prediction: An Asynchronous Decentralized Federated Learning Approach

Abstract

Newly diagnosed Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) patients often struggle to obtain effective Blood Glucose (BG) prediction models due to the lack of sufficient BG data from Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM), presenting a significant "cold start" problem in patient care. Utilizing population models to address this challenge is a potential solution, but collecting patient data for training population models in a privacy-conscious manner is challenging, especially given that such data is often stored on personal devices. Considering the privacy protection and addressing the "cold start" problem in diabetes care, we propose "GluADFL", blood Glucose prediction by Asynchronous Decentralized Federated Learning. We compared GluADFL with eight baseline methods using four distinct T1D datasets, comprising 298 participants, which demonstrated its superior performance in accurately predicting BG levels for cross-patient analysis. Furthermore, patients' data might be stored and shared across various communication networks in GluADFL, ranging from highly interconnected (e.g., random, performs the best among others) to more structured topologies (e.g., cluster and ring), suitable for various social networks. The asynchronous training framework supports flexible participation. By adjusting the ratios of inactive participants, we found it remains stable if less than 70% are inactive. Our results confirm that GluADFL offers a practical, privacy-preserved solution for BG prediction in T1D, significantly enhancing the quality of diabetes management.